Banner
Quickies

Between the Sheets With Sanderson Farms, Inc.

What They Do
Sanderson Farms is engaged in the production, processing, marketing and distribution of fresh and frozen chicken and the preparation, processing, marketing and distribution of processed and prepared chicken items. Industry peers include Tyson Foods, Inc., Pilgrim’s Pride Corporation, and Perdue Farms Inc..

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $157.19, with an initial trailing stop set at $111.41. With a current price of $102.93, upward price movement will find resistance at $105.27 and again at $108.77, with final resistance found at $113.03. Downward price movement will find support at $100.18 and again at $96.62.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $34. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. As a value investor, the central issue that I have using momentum targets is that they require investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $96. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors the minimum required hold is five (5) years. What follows are some of the metrics I use to determine my fair value estimates. They are presented only to assist investors considering an investment in Sanderson Farms.

Average Volume
The average volume number is simply an average of the number of shares traded over a specific period of time, in this case the prior 50 days. The lower the number the greater the volatility the markets can impact on the stock price. For Sanderson Farms the most recent ADV number is 0.361 million shares.

Days to Cover
The most recent days to cover number is 13. The days to cover number is a measure of the company’s outstanding shares that are currently shorted, expressed as the number of days required to close out all the short positions. The number is determined by dividing the number of outstanding shares currently shorted by the average daily volume. The days to cover number is updated twice per month and is sometimes used along with the beta ratio as a volatility precursor for a stock.

Beta Ratio
The beta ratio is a measure of the systemic risk of ownership of a particular stock as compared to the systemic risk of ownership of the market as a whole. The higher the beta ratio, the more volatile the stock. For Sanderson Farms the current beta ratio is 0.56.

Unrelated Income
Income unrelated to a company’s day to day operation, such as income tax benefits or income from other sources can significantly distort a company’s earnings and consequently its fair value. Investors should always explore the sources of a company’s earnings to better understand potential valuation impacts. For Sanderson Farms 43% of the company’s net income came from income tax benefits and 0% of net income came from “other” sources.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as the “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. In the past 12 months, the company has reported 150 insider trades involving 28,523 shares of stock. Of those 150 insider trades, 98 were Buys involving 18,308 shares of stock, and 52 were Sells involving 10,215 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 1.8:1.

Year-Over-Year Metrics
Several year-over-year metrics that are of interest to many investors are revenue growth, earnings growth, free cash flow growth, debt growth, price growth, and price growth. For Sanderson Farms, revenue decreased by 3%, earnings increased by 4%, free cash flow decreased by 162%, debt increased by 5%, and the stock price increased by 5%. Year to date the stock price is up 5% and the S&P 500 is down 3%.

Minimum Rate of Return
I calculate the minimum rate of return for any equity investment by multiplying the a company’s stock specific beta by the yield for a 10-year treasury and then adding my equity risk premium to that result. The equity risk premium is the excess return I want to receive for investing in an equity as opposed to a risk free investment such as a treasury. My calculated rate of return for Sanderson Farms is 5%.

Other Value Considerations
Other value considerations that many investors like to consider include the PE Ratio, the PEG Ratio, Return on Assets, Return on Equity, Return on Capital Employed, Return on Invested Capital, Cash Flow From Invested Capital, Debt to Capital Ratio, Book Value, and Tangible Book Value. For Sanderson Farms, the PE Ratio is 32, the PEG Ratio is 1, Return on Assets is 4%, Return on Equity is 5%, Return on Capital Employed is 5%, Return on Invested Capital is 5%, Cash Flow From Invested Capital is 13%, the Debt to Capital Ratio is 0.001%, Book Value is $63, and Tangible Book Value is $63.

Baseline and Fair Value
As an on-going concern, my current baseline or intrinsic value for the company is $13. Baseline valuations are based on free cash flow value, net current asset value, book value, and tangible book value. My current fair value estimate for the stock is $31. The fair value estimate is my current valuation for a stock based on earnings, earnings growth, and the current 5-year yield of a AAA rated corporate bond. Value investing initiate, reduce, and terminate targets are derivatives of baseline and fair value.

Future Value
My future (5 year hold) target price for the stock is $257, which is an average annual return of 30%. A prior five year hold of the stock (FY2014- FY2018) would have returned an average of 12% per year. Past and future gains are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Risk/Reward Ratio
The risk/reward ratio measures how much your potential reward is for every dollar you put at risk. I determine my risk/reward ratio by subtracting the current stock price from my termination target (sell price) and then dividing that result by my initiate (buy) target and a swing multiplier. The swing multiplier allows for stock purchases within a price range percentage. Typically I like to see the risk/reward ratio at 3 or higher. For Sanderson Farms my risk/reward ratio is (13.69).

My Investment Summary
My investment summary was determined utilizing that the financial information taken directly from the company’s latest SEC 10-K filing and is based on a value investing philosophy which considers that price determines return.

Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Nasdaq: SAFM) – FYE 10/2018 – OVER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $20 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

Disclosure
I am not a licensed or registered investment professional, nor am I qualified to provide investment advice. I also hold no shares of the stock mentioned in this post.
Posted on 12/20/18

Between the Sheets With Deere and Company

What They Do
Deere and Company manufactures and distributes agriculture, turf, construction, earthmoving, material handling and timber harvesting equipment and related service parts for medium and utility tractors; loaders; combines, corn pickers, cotton and sugarcane harvesters and related front-end equipment and sugarcane loaders; tillage, seeding and application equipment, including sprayers, nutrient management and soil preparation machinery; hay and forage equipment, including self-propelled forage harvesters and attachments, balers and mowers; turf and utility equipment, including riding lawn equipment and walk-behind mowers, golf course equipment, utility vehicles, and commercial mowing equipment. Industry peers include Caterpillar Inc., Kubota Corporation, and Case Construction Equipment.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $157.19, with an initial trailing stop set at $143.89. With a current price of $146.08, upward price movement will find resistance at $148.44 and again at $153.77, with final resistance found at $158.21. Downward price movement will find support at $143.56 and again at $140.72, with final support found at $137.35.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $98. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. As a value investor, the central issue that I have using momentum targets is that they require investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $151. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors the minimum required hold is five (5) years. What follows are some of the metrics I use to determine my fair value estimates. They are presented only to assist investors considering an investment in Deere and Company.

Average Volume
The average volume number is simply an average of the number of shares traded over a specific period of time, in this case the prior 50 days. The lower the number the greater the volatility the markets can impact on the stock price. For Deere and Company the most recent ADV number is 2.658 million shares.

Days to Cover
The most recent days to cover number is 2. The days to cover number is a measure of the company’s outstanding shares that are currently shorted, expressed as the number of days required to close out all the short positions. The number is determined by dividing the number of outstanding shares currently shorted by the average daily volume. The days to cover number is updated twice per month and is sometimes used along with the beta ratio as a volatility precursor for a stock.

Beta Ratio
The beta ratio is a measure of the systemic risk of ownership of a particular stock as compared to the systemic risk of ownership of the market as a whole. The higher the beta ratio, the more volatile the stock. For Deere and Company the current beta ratio is 1.14.

Unrelated Income
Income unrelated to a company’s day to day operation, such as income tax benefits or income from other sources can significantly distort a company’s earnings and consequently its fair value. Investors should always explore the sources of a company’s earnings to better understand potential valuation impacts. For Deere and Company 0% of the company’s net income came from income tax benefits and 1% of net income came from “other” sources.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as the “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. In the past 12 months, the company has reported 67 insider trades involving 1,117,447 shares of stock. Of those 67 insider trades, 44 were Buys involving 626,922 shares of stock, and 23 were Sells involving 490,525 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 1.3:1.

Year-Over-Year Metrics
Several year-over-year metrics that are of interest to many investors are revenue growth, earnings growth, free cash flow growth, debt growth, price growth, and price growth. For Deere and Company, revenue increased by 26%, earnings increased by 3%, free cash flow increased by 10%, debt increased by 21%, and the stock price increased by 4%. Year to date the stock price is up 5% and the S&P 500 is down 3%.

Minimum Rate of Return
I calculate the minimum rate of return for any equity investment by multiplying the a company’s stock specific beta by the yield for a 10-year treasury and then adding my equity risk premium to that result. The equity risk premium is the excess return I want to receive for investing in an equity as opposed to a risk free investment such as a treasury. My calculated rate of return for Deere and Company is 6%.

Other Value Considerations
Other value considerations that many investors like to consider include the PE Ratio, the PEG Ratio, Return on Assets, Return on Equity, Return on Capital Employed, Return on Invested Capital, Cash Flow From Invested Capital, Debt to Capital Ratio, Book Value, and Tangible Book Value. For Deere and Company, the PE Ratio is 20, the PEG Ratio is 2, Return on Assets is 3%, Return on Equity is 21%, Return on Capital Employed is 4%, Return on Invested Capital is 5%, Cash Flow From Invested Capital is 10%, the Debt to Capital Ratio is 374%, Book Value is $35, and Tangible Book Value is $21.

Baseline and Fair Value
As an on-going concern, my current baseline or intrinsic value for the company is $147. Baseline valuations are based on free cash flow value, net current asset value, book value, and tangible book value. My current fair value estimate for the stock is $90. The fair value estimate is my current valuation for a stock based on earnings, earnings growth, and the current 5-year yield of a AAA rated corporate bond. Value investing initiate, reduce, and terminate targets are derivatives of baseline and fair value.

Future Value
My future (5 year hold) target price for the stock is $219, which is an average annual return of 10%. A prior five year hold of the stock (FY2014- FY2018) would have returned an average of 14% per year. Past and future gains are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Risk/Reward Ratio
The risk/reward ratio measures how much your potential reward is for every dollar you put at risk. I determine my risk/reward ratio by subtracting the current stock price from my termination target (sell price) and then dividing that result by my initiate (buy) target and a swing multiplier. The swing multiplier allows for stock purchases within a price range percentage. Typically I like to see the risk/reward ratio at 3 or higher. For Deere and Company my risk/reward ratio is 1.26.

My Investment Summary
My investment summary was determined utilizing that the financial information taken directly from the company’s latest SEC 10-K filing and is based on a value investing philosophy which considers that price determines return.

Deere and Company (NYSE: DE) – FYE 10/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels in line with my most recent $147 baseline value estimate. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

Disclosure
I am not a licensed or registered investment professional, nor am I qualified to provide investment advice. I also hold no shares of the stock mentioned in this post.
Posted on 12/20/18

Between the Sheets With Hormel Foods Corporation

What They Do
Hormel Foods is engaged in the production and marketing of a variety of meat and food products, primarily pork and turkey. Industry peers include ConAgra Foods, Smithfield Foods, and Tyson Foods.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $45.54, with an initial trailing stop set at $42.61. With a current price of $43.26, upward price movement will find resistance at $45.33. Downward price movement will find support at $43.20 and again at $42.07, with final support found at $41.05.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $24. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. As a value investor, the central issue that I have using momentum targets is that they require investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $45. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors the minimum required hold is five (5) years. What follows are some of the metrics I use to determine my fair value estimates. They are presented only to assist investors considering an investment in Hormel Foods.

Average Volume
The average volume number is simply an average of the number of shares traded over a specific period of time, in this case the prior 50 days. The lower the number the greater the volatility the markets can impact on the stock price. For Hormel Foods the most recent ADV number is 3.36 million shares.

Days to Cover
The most recent days to cover number is 8. The days to cover number is a measure of the company’s outstanding shares that are currently shorted, expressed as the number of days required to close out all the short positions. The number is determined by dividing the number of outstanding shares currently shorted by the average daily volume. The days to cover number is updated twice per month and is sometimes used along with the beta ratio as a volatility precursor for a stock.

Beta Ratio
The beta ratio is a measure of the systemic risk of ownership of a particular stock as compared to the systemic risk of ownership of the market as a whole. The higher the beta ratio, the more volatile the stock. For Hormel Foods the current beta ratio is 0.49.

Unrelated Income
Income unrelated to a company’s day to day operation, such as income tax benefits or income from other sources can significantly distort a company’s earnings and consequently its fair value. Investors should always explore the sources of a company’s earnings to better understand potential valuation impacts. For Hormel Foods 0% of the company’s net income came from income tax benefits and 6% of net income came from “other” sources.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as the “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. In the past 12 months, the company has reported 110 insider trades involving 1,856,155 shares of stock. Of those 110 insider trades, 57 were Buys involving 983,017 shares of stock, and 53 were Sells involving 873,138 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 1.1:1.

Year-Over-Year Metrics
Several year-over-year metrics that are of interest to many investors are revenue growth, earnings growth, free cash flow growth, debt growth, price growth, and price growth. For Hormel Foods, revenue increased by 4%, earnings increased by 12%, free cash flow increased by 4%, debt increased by 17%, and the stock price increased by 16%. Year to date the stock price is up 37% and the S&P 500 is down 3%.

Minimum Rate of Return
I calculate the minimum rate of return for any equity investment by multiplying the a company’s stock specific beta by the yield for a 10-year treasury and then adding my equity risk premium to that result. The equity risk premium is the excess return I want to receive for investing in an equity as opposed to a risk free investment such as a treasury. My calculated rate of return for Hormel Foods is 4%.

Other Value Considerations
Other value considerations that many investors like to consider include the PE Ratio, the PEG Ratio, Return on Assets, Return on Equity, Return on Capital Employed, Return on Invested Capital, Cash Flow From Invested Capital, Debt to Capital Ratio, Book Value, and Tangible Book Value. For Hormel Foods, the PE Ratio is 24, the PEG Ratio is 2, Return on Assets is 12%, Return on Equity is 17%, Return on Capital Employed is 16%, Return on Invested Capital is 37%, Cash Flow From Invested Capital is 18%, the Debt to Capital Ratio is 11%, Book Value is $10, and Tangible Book Value is $3.

Baseline and Fair Value
As an on-going concern, my current baseline or intrinsic value for the company is $33. Baseline valuations are based on free cash flow value, net current asset value, book value, and tangible book value. My current fair value estimate for the stock is $22. The fair value estimate is my current valuation for a stock based on earnings, earnings growth, and the current 5-year yield of a AAA rated corporate bond. Value investing initiate, reduce, and terminate targets are derivatives of baseline and fair value.

Future Value
My future (5 year hold) target price for the stock is $77, which is an average annual return of 16%. A prior five year hold of the stock (FY2014- FY2018) would have returned an average of 21% per year. Past and future gains are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Risk/Reward Ratio
The risk/reward ratio measures how much your potential reward is for every dollar you put at risk. I determine my risk/reward ratio by subtracting the current stock price from my termination target (sell price) and then dividing that result by my initiate (buy) target. For Hormel Foods my risk/reward ratio is 0.48, which means at the current price, my risk potential exceeds my reward potential by 48%.

My Investment Summary
My investment summary was determined utilizing that the financial information taken directly from the company’s latest SEC 10-K filing and is based on a value investing philosophy which considers that price determines return.

Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL) – FYE 10/2018 – SELL HALF The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $33 baseline value estimate, but below my most recent $53 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

Disclosure
I am not a licensed or registered investment professional, nor am I qualified to provide investment advice. I also hold no shares of the stock mentioned in this post.
Posted on 12/18/18

Between the Sheets With Powell Industries, Inc.

What They Do
Powell Industries develops, designs, manufactures and services custom-engineered equipment and systems for the distribution, control and monitoring of electrical energy for the oil and gas refining, offshore oil and gas production, petrochemical, pipeline, terminal, mining and metals, light rail traction power, electric utility, pulp and paper industries and other heavy industrial markets.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $34.37, with an initial trailing stop set at $25.19. With a current price of $25.57, upward price movement will find resistance at $27.62 and again at $29.63 with final resistance found at $31.59. Downward price movement will find no support.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $(7). Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. As a value investor, the central issue that I have using momentum targets is that they require investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $25. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors the minimum required hold is five (5) years. What follows are some of the metrics I use to determine my fair value estimates. They are presented only to assist investors considering an investment in Powell Industries.

Average Volume
The average volume number is simply an average of the number of shares traded over a specific period of time, in this case the prior 50 days. The lower the number the greater the volatility the markets can impact on the stock price. For Powell Industries the most recent ADV number is 0.038 million shares.

Days to Cover
The most recent days to cover number is 6. The days to cover number is a measure of the company’s outstanding shares that are currently shorted, expressed as the number of days required to close out all the short positions. The number is determined by dividing the number of outstanding shares currently shorted by the average daily volume. The days to cover number is updated twice per month and is sometimes used along with the beta ratio as a volatility precursor for a stock.

Beta Ratio
The beta ratio is a measure of the systemic risk of ownership of a particular stock as compared to the systemic risk of ownership of the market as a whole. The higher the beta ratio, the more volatile the stock. For Powell Industries the current beta ratio is 1.19.

Unrelated Income
Income unrelated to a company’s day to day operation, such as income tax benefits or income from other sources can significantly distort a company’s earnings and consequently its fair value. Investors should always explore the sources of a company’s earnings to better understand potential valuation impacts. For Powell Industries 0% of the company’s net income came from income tax benefits and 0% of net income came from “other” sources.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as the “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. In the past 12 months, the company has reported 26 insider trades involving 52,712 shares of stock. Of those 26 insider trades, 20 were Buys involving 36,000 shares of stock, and 6 were Sells involving 16,712 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 2.2:1.

Year-Over-Year Metrics
Several year-over-year metrics that are of interest to many investors are revenue growth, earnings growth, free cash flow growth, debt growth, price growth, and price growth. For Powell Industries, revenue increased by 0.13%, earnings decreased by 1.6%, free cash flow decreased by 142%, debt decreased by 2.3%, and the stock price decreased by 2.3%. Year to date the stock price is down 2.4% and the S&P 500 is down 2.8%.

Minimum Rate of Return
I calculate the minimum rate of return for any equity investment by multiplying the a company’s stock specific beta by the yield for a 10-year treasury and then adding my equity risk premium to that result. The equity risk premium is the excess return I want to receive for investing in an equity as opposed to a risk free investment such as a treasury. My calculated rate of return for Powell Industries is 6.5%.

Other Value Considerations
Other value considerations that many investors like to consider include the PE Ratio, the PEG Ratio, Return on Assets, Return on Equity, Return on Capital Employed, Return on Invested Capital, Cash Flow From Invested Capital, Debt to Capital Ratio, Book Value, and Tangible Book Value. For Powell Industries, the PE Ratio is (43), the PEG Ratio is (20), Return on Assets is (1.6)%, Return on Equity is (2.3)%, Return on Capital Employed is (2.3)%, Return on Invested Capital is (2.4)%, Cash Flow From Invested Capital is 1.7%, Book Value is $26, and Tangible Book Value is $26.

Baseline and Fair Value
As an on-going concern, my current baseline valuation for the company is $6. Baseline valuations are based on free cash flow value, net current asset value, book value, and tangible book value. My current fair value estimate for the stock is $(7). The fair value estimate is my current valuation for a stock based on earnings, earnings growth, and the current 5-year yield of a AAA rated corporate bond. Value investing initiate, reduce, and terminate targets are derivatives of fair value.

Future Value
My future (5 year hold) target price for the stock is $28, which is an average annual return of 2%. A prior five year hold of the stock (FY2014- FY2018) would have returned an average of (8)% per year. Past and future gains are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Risk/Reward Ratio
The risk/reward ratio measures how much your potential reward is, for every dollar you put at risk. I determine my risk/reward ratio by subtracting the current stock price from my termination target (sell price) and then dividing that result by my initiate (buy) target. For Powell Industries my risk/reward ratio is (4.4), which means that for every dollar invested in this stock, I have the potential to loose $4.40.

My Investment Summary
My investment summary was determined utilizing that the financial information taken directly from the company’s latest SEC 10-K filing and is based on a value investing philosophy which considers that price determines return.

Powell Industries, Inc. (Nasdaq: POWL) – FYE 09/2018 – OVER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $10 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

Disclosure
I am not a licensed or registered investment professional, nor am I qualified to provide investment advice. I also hold no shares of the stock mentioned in this post.
Posted on 12/18/18

Between the Sheets With Analog Devices, Inc.

What They Do
Analog Devices designs, manufactures, and markets high-performance analog, mixed-signal and digital signal processing integrated circuits (ICs) used in all types of electronic equipment. The company’s products are embedded inside industrial process control systems, medical imaging equipment, factory automation systems, patient monitoring devices, instrumentation and measurement systems, wireless infrastructure equipment, energy management systems, networking equipment, aerospace and defense electronics, optical systems, automobiles, digital cameras, and digital televisions. Industry peers include Texas Instruments Incorporated, STMicroelectronics SA, and NXP Semiconductors NV.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $96.48, with an initial trailing stop set at $90.54. With a current price of $91.62, upward price movement will find resistance at $94.25 and again at $95.86 with final resistance found at $98.01. Downward price movement will find support at $88.97 and again at $84.78, with final support found at $82.49.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $80. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. As a value investor, the central issue that I have using momentum targets is that they require investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains and make no allowances for the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $119. Growth targets are determined by using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investor the minimum required hold is five (5) years. What follow are some of the metrics I use to determine a fair value estimate. They are presented only to assist investors considering an investment in Analog Devices.

Average Volume
The average volume number is simply an average of the number of shares traded over a specific period of time, in this case the prior 50 days. The lower the number the greater the volatility the markets can impact on the stock price. For Analog Devices the most recent ADV number is 3.679 million shares.

Days to Cover
The most recent days to cover number is 4. The days to cover number is a measure of the company’s outstanding shares that are currently shorted, expressed as the number of days required to close out all the short positions. The number is determined by dividing the number of outstanding shares currently shorted by the average daily volume. The days to cover number is updated twice per month and is sometimes used along with the beta ratio as a volatility precursor for a stock.

Beta Ratio
The beta ratio is a measure of the systemic risk of ownership of a particular stock as compared to the systemic risk of ownership of the market as a whole. The higher the beta ratio, the more volatile the stock. For Analog Devices the current beta ratio is 1.23.

Unrelated Income
Income unrelated to a company’s day to day operation, such as income tax benefits or income from other sources can signifcantly distort a company’s earnings and consequently its fair value. Investors should always explore the sources of a company’s earnings to better understand potential valuation impacts. For Analog Devices 0% of the company’s net income came from income tax benefits and 0% of net income came from “other” sources.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as the “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. In the past 12 months, the company has reported 180 insider trades involving 980,510 shares of stock. Of those 180 insider trades, 107 were Buys involving 464,100 shares of stock, and 73 were Sells involving 516,410 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 0.9:1.

Year-Over-Year Metrics
Several year-over-year metrics that are of interest to many investors are revenue growth, free cash flow growth, earnings growth, debt growth, price growth, and price growth. For Analog Devices, revenue increased by 21%, earnings increased by 83%, free cash flow increased by 70%, debt decreased by 19%, and the stock price decreased by 9%. Year to date the stock price is up 10% and the S&P 500 is up 3.24%.

Anticipated Rate of Return
I calculate the anticipated rate of return for any equity investment by multiplying the a company’s stock specific beta by the yield for a 10-year treasury and then adding my equity risk premium to that result. The equity risk premium is the excess return I want to receive for investing in an equity as opposed to a risk free investment such as a treasury. My calculated rate of return for Analog Devices is 6.69%.

Other Value Considerations
Other value considerations that many investors like to consider include the PE Ratio, the PEG Ratio, Return on Assets, Return on Equity, Return on Capital Employed, Return on Invested Capital, Cash Flow From Invested Capital, and Tangible Book Value. For Analog Devices, the PE Ratio is 17, the PEG Ratio is 0.9, Return on Assets is 9.7%, Return on Equity is 18.1%, Return on Capital Employed is 11.5%, Return on Invested Capital is 107.6%, Cash Flow From Invested Capital is 14.2%, Book Value is $29.69, and Tangible Book Value is $(16.32).

Baseline and Fair Value
As an on-going concern, my current baseline valuation for the company is $48. Baseline valuations are based on free cash flow value, net current asset value, book value, and tangible book value. My current fair value estimate for the stock is $72. The fair value estimate is my current valuation for a stock based on earnings, earnings growth, and the current 5-year yield of a AAA rated corporate bond. Value investing initiate, reduce, and terminate targets are derivatives of fair value.

Future Value
My future (5 year hold) target price for the stock is $175, which is an average annual return of 18%. A prior five year hold of the stock (FY2014- FY2018) would have returned an average of 15% per year. Past and future gains are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

My Investment Summary
My investment summary was determined utilizing that the financial information taken directly from the company’s latest SEC 10-K filing and is based on a value investing philosophy which considers that price determines return.
Analog Devices, Inc. (NYSE: ADI) – FYE 10/2018 – SELL HALF The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $72 fair value estimate, but below my most recent $114 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

Disclosure
I am not a licensed or registered investment professional, nor am I qualified to provide investment advice. I also hold no shares in the stock mentioned in this post.
Posted on 12/03/18

Between the Sheets With Post Holdings, Inc.

What They Do
Post Holdings is manufacturer, marketer and distributor of branded ready-to-eat cereals in the United States and Canada, marketing products under the brand names, Honey Bunches of Oats®, Pebbles™, Post Selects®, Great Grains®, Spoon Size® Shredded Wheat, Post® Raisin Bran, Grape-Nuts®, Good Mornings® and Honeycomb®. Industry peers include General Mills, Inc, Kellogg Company, and Pepsico, Inc..

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $98.19, with an initial trailing stop set at $95.30. With a current price of $96.75, upward price movement will find resistance at $98.06 with final resistance at $100.36. Downward price movement will find support at $95.41 and again at $93.00, with final support found at $88.36.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $160. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. As a value investor, the central issue that I have using momentum targets is that they require investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains and make no allowances for the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $205. Growth targets are determined by using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing requires investors to consider a company’s overall finincial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investor the minimum required hold is five (5) years. What follow are some of the metrics I use to determine a fair value estimate. They are presented only to assist investors considering an investment in Post Holdings.

Average Volume
The average volume number is simply an average of the number of shares traded over a specific period of time, in this case the prior 50 days. The lower the number the greater the volatility the markets can impact on the stock price. For Post Holdings the most recent ADV number is 0.735 million shares.

Days to Cover
The most recent days to cover number is 6. The days to cover number is a measure of the company’s outstanding shares that are currently shorted, expressed as the number of days required to close out all the short positions. The number is determined by dividing the number of outstanding shares currently shorted by the average daily volume. The days to cover number is updated twice per month and is sometimes used along with the beta ratio as a volatility precursor for a stock.

Beta Ratio
The beta ratio is a measure of the systemic risk of ownership of a particular stock as compared to the systemic risk of ownership of the market as a whole. The higher the beta ratio, the more volatile the stock. For Post Holdings the current beta ratio is 1.0.

Unrelated Income
Income unrelated to a company’s day to day operation, such as income tax benefits or income from other sources can signifcantly distort a company’s earnings and consequently its fair value. Investors should always explore the sources of a company’s earnings to better understand potential valuation impacts. For Post Holdings 29% of the company’s net income came from income tax benefits and 8% of net income came from “other” sources.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as the “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. In the past 12 months, the company has reported 40 insider trades involving 368,460 shares of stock. Of those 40 insider trades, 20 were Buys involving 236,051 shares of stock, and 20 were Sells involving 132,409 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 1.8:1.

Year-Over-Year Metrics
Several year-over-year metrics that are of interest to many investors are revenue growth, free cash flow growth, earnings growth, debt growth, price growth, and price growth. For Post Holdings, revenue increased by 20%, earnings increased by 96%, free cash flow increased by 55%, debt increased by 1%, and the stock price increased by 10%. Year to date the stock price is down 1% and the S&P 500 is up 3.24%.

Anticipated Rate of Return
I calculate the anticipated rate of return for any equity investment by multiplying the a company’s stock specific beta by the yield for a 10-year treasury and then adding my equity risk premium to that result. The equity risk premium is the excess return I want to receive for investing in an equity as opposed to a risk free investment such as a treasury. My calculated rate of return for Post Holdings is 6.0%.

Other Value Considerations
Other value considerations that many investors like to consider include the PE Ratio, the PEG Ratio, Return on Assets, Return on Equity, Return on Capital Employed, Return on Invested Capital, Cash Flow From Invested Capital, and Tangible Book Value. For Post Holdings, the PE Ratio is 9, the PEG Ratio is 0.4, Return on Assets is 5.3%, Return on Equity is 22.7%, Return on Capital Employed is 6.7%, Cash Flow From Invested Capital is 14.5%, Book Value is $45.97, and Tangible Book Value is $(74.78).

Baseline and Fair Value
As an on-going concern, my current baseline valuation for the company is $68. Baseline valuations are based on free cash flow value, net current asset value, book value, and tangible book value. My current fair value estimate for the stock is $143. The fair value estimate is my current valuation for a stock based on earnings, earnings growth, and the current 5-year yield of a AAA rated corporate bond. Value investing initiate, reduce, and terminate targets are derivatives of fair value.

Future Value
My future (5 year hold) target price for the stock is $215, which is an average annual return of 24%. A prior five year hold of the stock (FY2014- FY2018) would have returned an average of 29% per year. Past and future gains are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

My Investment Summary
My investment summary was determined utilizing that the financial information taken directly from the company’s latest SEC 10-K filing and is based on a value investing philosophy which considers that price determines return.
Post Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: POST) – FYE 10/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels in line with my most recent $143 fair value estimate. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

Disclosure
I am not a licensed or registered investment professional, nor am I qualified to provide investment advice. I also hold no shares in the stock mentioned in this post.
Posted on 12/02/18