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A Quickie With Halliburton Company

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Haliburton is a provider of services and products to the upstream oil and natural gas industry, from locating hydrocarbons and managing geological data, to drilling and formation evaluation, well construction and completion, and optimizing production throughout the life of the field. Listed competitors are Schlumberger NV, Baker Hughes, and Weatherford International PLC.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $32.60, with an initial trailing stop set at $25.56. With a recent price of $25.95, upward price movement will find resistance at $26.25, and again at $27.93, with final resistance found at $28.88. Downward price movement will find no current support levels.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $87. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $150. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $43.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 is $36. Earnings during that time period averaged $1.45 per share and the average PE Ratio was 31. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 11.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 83 insider trades involving 488,145 shares of stock. Of those 83 insider trades, 18 were Buys involving 345,817 shares of stock, and 65 were Sells involving 142,328 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 2.4 to 1.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 197.04 shares of stock with a cost basis of $50.75 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $26.58 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $139.19 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $5,377, a loss of 46%.

Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $26 initiate target, but below my most recent $54 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 05/22/19

A Quickie With Patterson-UTI Energy

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Patterson-UTI owns and operates land-based drilling rigs and pressure pumping equipment, operating in the continental United States, and western and northern Canada. Listed competitors are Baker Hughes, Helmerich and Payne, and Nabors Industries Ltd.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $15.33, with an initial trailing stop set at $12.59. With a recent price of $12.78, upward price movement will find resistance at $13.74, and again at $14.46, with final resistance found at $15.24. Downward price movement will find support at $12.11 and again at $10.42.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $54. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $13. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $67.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 is $52. Earnings during that time period averaged $4.35 per share and the average PE Ratio was 5. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 3.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 42 insider trades involving 2,089,141 shares of stock. Of those 42 insider trades, 28 were Buys involving 1,397,746 shares of stock, and 14 were Sells involving 691,395 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 2 to 1.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 394.94 shares of stock with a cost basis of $25.32 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $10.35 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $91.09 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $4,179, a loss of 58%.

Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (Nasdaq: PTEN) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my most recent $40 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 05/15/19

A Quickie With Nabors Industries, Ltd.

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Nabors Industries Ltd., provides the oil and gas industry with both onshore and offshore drilling and drilling rig services. The company also provides well completion and well production services. Listed competitors are Diamond Offshore Drilling, Ensco plc, and Patterson-UTI Energy.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $4.14, with an initial trailing stop set at $3.51. With a recent price of $3.56, upward price movement will find resistance at $3.88, and again at $4.44, with final resistance found at $4.89. Downward price movement will find support at $3.07 and again at $2.80, with final support found at $1.96.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $14. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $4. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $30.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 is $35. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.99 per share and the average PE Ratio was 4. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 4.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 27 insider trades involving 7,884,237 shares of stock. Of those 27 insider trades, 16 were Buys involving 5,583,018 shares of stock, and 11 were Sells involving 2,301,219 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 2.4 to 1.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 588.58 shares of stock with a cost basis of $16.99 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $2.00 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $110.84 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $1,288, a loss of 87%.

Nabors Industries, Ltd. (NYSE: NBR) – FYE 12/2018 – VALUE TRAP – My price to value ratio for the stock has remainded below 1 for the past five years. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 05/14/19

A Quickie With PVH Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
PVH Corp. is an apparel company that designs and markets branded dress shirts, neckwear, sportswear and, to a lesser extent, footwear. The company’s brands consists of Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, Van Heusen, IZOD, Bass, ARROW and Eagle, which are owned, and Geoffrey Beene, Kenneth Cole New York, Kenneth Cole Reaction, Sean John, JOE Joseph Abboud, Michael Kors, Chaps, Donald J. Trump Signature Collection, DKNY, Elie Tahari, Nautica, Ted Baker, J. Garcia, Claiborne, Robert Graham, U.S. POLO ASSN., Ike Behar, Axcess, Jones New York and John Varvatos, as well as various other licensed and private label brands. Industry peers include Nine West Holdings, Inc., Perry Ellis International, Inc., and Ralph Lauren Corporation.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $129.78, with an initial trailing stop set at $119.62. With a recent price of $121.44, upward price movement will find resistance at $124.96, and again at $128.45, with final resistance found at $133.72. Downward price movement will find support at $116.36 and again at $111.03, with final support found at $104.64.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $156. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $149. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $129.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 is $48. Earnings during that time period averaged $5.76 per share and the average PE Ratio was 19. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 12.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 99 insider trades involving 413,413 shares of stock. Of those 99 insider trades, 40 were Buys involving 200,700 shares of stock, and 59 were Sells involving 212,713 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 0.9 to 1.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (01/31/14), you would have received 82.73 shares of stock with a cost basis of $120.87 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (01/31/19), you would have closed at $109.1 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $12.65 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $9,040, a loss of 10%.

PVH Corporation (NYSE: PVH) – FYE 01/2019 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $77 initiate target, but below my most recent $161 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 05/09/19

A Quickie With Science Applications International Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Science Applications International Corporation is a provider of technical, engineering and enterprise information technology (IT) services primarily to the U.S. government, including the Department of Defense (DoD) and federal civilian agencies. Listed competitors include Computer Sciences Corporation, Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation, and Jacobs Engineering Group, Inc..

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $78.96, with an initial trailing stop set at $74.09. With a recent price of $75.22, upward price movement will find resistance at $76.46, and again at $79.04. Downward price movement will find support at $74.01 and again at $71.39, with final support found at $69.73.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $54. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $74. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $59.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 is $40. Earnings during that time period averaged $3.47 per share and the average PE Ratio was 17. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 20.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 54 insider trades involving 218,605 shares of stock. Of those 54 insider trades, 26 were Buys involving 113,860 shares of stock, and 28 were Sells involving 104,745 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 1.1 to 1.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (01/31/14), you would have received 270.20 shares of stock with a cost basis of $37.01 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (01/31/19), you would have closed at $67.14 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $312.53 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $18,454, a gain of 85%.

Science Applications International Corporation (NYSE: SAIC) – FYE 01/2019 – SELL HALF – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $59 baseline value estimate, but below my most recent $95 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 05/08/19

A Quickie With The Gap

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
The Gap is a retail apparel company offering apparel, accessories, and personal care products for men, women, and children under the Gap, Banana Republic, Old Navy, Athleta, and Intermix brands. Industry peers include The TJX Companies, Inc., American Eagle Outfitters, Inc., and J. Crew Group, Inc..

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $28.26, with an initial trailing stop set at $25.28. With a recent price of $25.66, upward price movement will find resistance at $26.10, and again at $26.79, with final resistance found at $24.71. Downward price movement will find support at $24.71.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $41. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $33. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $46.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 is $44. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.47 per share and the average PE Ratio was 13. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 10.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. In the past 12 months, the company has recorded 71 insider trades involving 6,304,572 shares of stock. Of those 71 insider trades, 41 were Buys involving 774,829 shares of stock, and 30 were Sells involving 5,529,743 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 0.1 to 1.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (01/31/14), you would have received 262.61 shares of stock with a cost basis of $38.08 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (01/31/19), you would have closed at $25.4 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $255 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $6,936, a loss of 31%.

The Gap, Inc. (NYSE: GAP) – FYE 01/2019 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my most recent $28 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 05/07/19

A Quickie With Lakeland Industries

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Lakeland Industries manufactures and sells safety garments and accessories for use in the integrated oil, chemical/petrochemical, utilities, automobile, steel, glass, construction, smelting, munition plant, janitorial, pharmaceutical, mortuaries and high technology electronics markets, as well as scientific and medical laboratory markets. The company supplies federal, state and local governmental agencies and departments. Listed competitors include E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Kimberly-Clark Corporation, and Sperian Protection.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $12.83, with an initial trailing stop set at $12.17. With a recent price of $12.36, upward price movement will find resistance at $13.25, and again at $13.80. Downward price movement will find support at $11.86, and again at $11.42, with final support found at $11.14.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $4. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $13. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $12.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 is $32. Earnings during that time period averaged $0.55 per share and the average PE Ratio was 19. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 70.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. In the past 12 months, the company has recorded 47 insider trades involving 23,421 shares of stock. Of those 47 insider trades, 9 were Buys involving 15,489 shares of stock, and 38 were Sells involving 7,932 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 2 to 1.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (01/31/14), you would have received 1524.39 shares of stock with a cost basis of $6.56 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (01/31/19), you would have closed at $11.12 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $16,951, a gain of 70%.

Lakeland Industries, Inc. (Nasdaq: LAKE) – FYE 01/2019 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $7 initiate target, but below my most recent $15 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 05/06/19

A Quickie With Tech Data Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Tech Data is a wholesale distributor of technology products, selling to value-added resellers (“VARs”), direct marketers, retailers and corporate resellers who support the diverse technology needs of end users. Listed competitors include Ingram Micro, Synnex Corporation, and Arrow Electronics.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $103.91, with an initial trailing stop set at $ 105.70. With a recent price of $107.31, upward price movement will find resistance at $109.33. Downward price movement will find support at $102.90, and again at $99.28, with final support found at $95.77.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $245. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $301. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $205.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 is $83. Earnings during that time period averaged $5.26 per share and the average PE Ratio was 14. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 8.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. In the past 12 months, the company has recorded 96 insider trades involving 221,268 shares of stock. Of those 96 insider trades, 25 were Buys involving 85,759 shares of stock, and 71 were Sells involving 135,509 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 0.6 to 1.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (01/31/14), you would have received 185.46 shares of stock with a cost basis of $53.92 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (01/31/19), you would have closed at $95.63 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $17,736, a gain of 77%.

Tech Data Corporation (Nasdaq: TECD) – FYE 01/2019 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my most recent $123 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 05/05/19

A Quickie With REX American Resources

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
REX American Resources is a holding company with interests in four ethanol production entities, two of which, they have a majority ownership interest in. The company also has interests in heavy oil and oil sands production. Industry peers include Green Brick Partners, Green Plains, Inc., and Archer-Daniels-Midland Company.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $84.37, with an initial trailing stop set at $83.08. With a recent price of $84.35, upward price movement will find no resistance. Downward price movement will find support at $79.54, and again at $75.33, with final support found at $73.64.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $61. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $80. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $95.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 is $67. Earnings during that time period averaged $3.87 per share and the average PE Ratio was 16. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 20.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. In the past 12 months, the company has recorded 8 insider trades involving 21,744 shares of stock. Of those 8 insider trades, 8 were Buys involving 21,744 shares of stock, and 0 were Sells involving 0 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 0 to 0.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (01/31/14), you would have received 244.14 shares of stock with a cost basis of $40.96 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (01/31/19), you would have closed at $72.93 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $17,805, a gain of 78%.

REX American Resources Corporation (NYSE: REX) – FYE 01/2019 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $57 initiate target, but below my most recent $119 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 05/03/19

A Quickie With Lowe’s Companies

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Lowe’s Companies is a home improvement retailer. Industry peers include Builders FirstSource, Inc., Home Depot, Inc., and Huttig Building Products, Inc.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $112.60, with an initial trailing stop set at $110.54. With a recent price of $112.22, upward price movement will find resistance at $114.47 and again at $117.11. Downward price movement will find support at $109.39, and again at $105.76, with final support found at $100.05.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $67. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $107. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $79.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 is $56. Earnings during that time period averaged $4.86 per share and the average PE Ratio was 15. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 24.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. In the past 12 months, the company has recorded 34 insider trades involving 257,076 shares of stock. Of those 34 insider trades, 23 were Buys involving 203,102 shares of stock, and 11 were Sells involving 53,974 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 3.8 to 1.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (01/31/14), you would have received 216.03 shares of stock with a cost basis of $46.29 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (01/31/19), you would have closed at $96.16 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $286.43 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $21,060, a gain of 111%.

Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (NYSE: LOW) – FYE 01/2019 – SELL HALF – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $79 baseline value estimate, but below my most recent $127 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/30/19

A Quickie With The Home Depot

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
The Home Depot, Inc. is engaged as a home improvement retailer, selling an assortment of building materials, home improvement products and lawn and garden products as well as providing a number of services. Industry peers include True Value Company, Lowe’s Companies, and Menard, Inc.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $204.68, with an initial trailing stop set at $200.56. With a recent price of $203.61, upward price movement will find resistance at $211.50. Downward price movement will find support at $201.17 and again at $197.17, with final support found at $192.10.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $194. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $229. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $152.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 is $64. Earnings during that time period averaged $7.05 per share and the average PE Ratio was 18. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 17.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. In the past 12 months, the company has recorded 99 insider trades involving 1,056,617 shares of stock. Of those 99 insider trades, 40 were Buys involving 475,632 shares of stock, and 55 were Sells involving 580,985 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 0.8 to 1.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (01/31/14), you would have received 130.12 shares of stock with a cost basis of $76.85 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (01/31/19), you would have closed at $183.53 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $392.75 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $24,274 a gain of 143%.

The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) – FYE 01/2019 – SELL HALF – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $152 baseline value estimate, but below my most recent $244 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/29/19

A Quickie With Ulta Beauty

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Ulta Beauty is a beauty retailer that provides one-stop shopping for prestige, mass and salon products and salon services. The company focuses on providing affordable indulgence to customers by combining unmatched product breadth, value and convenience with the distinctive environment and experience of a specialty retailer. Industry peers include Regis Corporation, Macy’s, Inc., and Sephora Usa, Inc..

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $336.42, with an initial trailing stop set at $352.60. With a recent price of $357.97, upward price movement will find no resistance. Downward price movement will find support at $334.29 and again at $312.98, with final support found at $304.52.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $175. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $365. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $46.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 is $74. Earnings during that time period averaged $5.60 per share and the average PE Ratio was 32. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 32.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. In the past 12 months, the company has recorded 105 insider trades involving 1,168,328 shares of stock. Of those 105 insider trades, 45 were Buys involving 207,278 shares of stock, and 60 were Sells involving 960,350 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 0.2 to 1.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (01/31/14), you would have received 116.67 shares of stock with a cost basis of $85.71 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (01/31/19), you would have closed at $291.92 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $34,059 a gain of 241%.

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (Nasdaq: ULTA) – FYE 01/2019 – OVER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $246 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/28/19

A Quickie With World Fuel Services Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
World Fuel Services is a fuel logistics, transaction management and payment processing company, principally engaged in the distribution of fuel and related products and services in the aviation, marine and land transportation industries. Listed competitors are BP Marine Limited, Mercury Air Group, and Sun Coast Resources.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $30.29, with an initial trailing stop set at $31.15. With a recent price of $31.62, upward price movement will find no resistance. Downward price movement will find support at $30.08 and again at $29.04, with final support found at $27.95.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $(73). Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $(178). Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $46.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $49. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.01 per share and the average PE Ratio was 20. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 14.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 231.70 shares of stock with a cost basis of $43.16 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $21.41 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $50.56 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $5,011 a loss of 50%.

World Fuel Services Corporation (NYSE: INT) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $27 initiate target, but below my most recent $57 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/27/19

A Quickie With Valero Energy Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Valero Energy produces conventional gasolines, premium gasolines, gasoline meeting the specifications of the California Air Resources Board, diesel fuel, low-sulfur diesel fuel, ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuel, CARB diesel fuel, other distillates, jet fuel, asphalt, petrochemicals, lubricants, and other refined products. Industry peers include BP plc, Chevron Corporation, and Exxon Mobil Corporation.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $94.72, with an initial trailing stop set at $89.47. With a recent price of $90.83, upward price movement will find resistance at $92.31 and again at $104.15, with final resistance found at $109.97. Downward price movement will find support at $88.82 and again at $85.37, with final support found at $81.68.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $172. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $78. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $165.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $87. Earnings during that time period averaged $10.87 per share and the average PE Ratio was 6. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 7.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 198.41 shares of stock with a cost basis of $50.40 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $74.97 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $455.88 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $15,331 a gain of 53%.

Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my most recent $99 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/26/19

A Quickie With PBF Energy

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
PBF Energy and its consolidated subsidiaries is an independent petroleum refiner and supplier of unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants and other petroleum products. Industry peers include ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil Corporation, and Marathon Petroleum Corporation.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $38.85, with an initial trailing stop set at $32.55. With a recent price of $33.05, upward price movement will find resistance at $34.19 and again at $35.54, with final resistance found at $38.54. Downward price movement will find support at $31.86 and again at $30.20.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $51. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $27. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $62.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $46. Earnings during that time period averaged $4 per share and the average PE Ratio was 8. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 9.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 317.86 shares of stock with a cost basis of $31.46 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $32.67 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $352.76 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $10,737 a gain of 7%.

PBF Energy, Inc. (NYSE: PBF) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my most recent $37 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/25/19

A Quickie With Murphy Oil Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Murphy Oil Corporation is an oil and gas exploration and production company. Industry peers include BP plc, Exxon Mobil Corporation, and Royal Dutch Shell.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $31.87, with an initial trailing stop set at $28.72. With a recent price of $29.16, upward price movement will find resistance at $30.44 and again at $31.79, with final resistance found at $32.64. Downward price movement will find support at $27.86 and again at $26.38, with final support found at $23.40.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $145. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $247. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $118.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $66. Earnings during that time period averaged $10.35 per share and the average PE Ratio was 4. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 4.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 154.13 shares of stock with a cost basis of $64.88 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $23.39 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $183.41 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $3,789 a loss of (62)%.

Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE: MUR) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my most recent $71 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/24/19

A Quickie With Hess Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Hess Corporation is an exploration and production company that develops, produces, purchases, transports and sells crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. Industry peers include ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil, and Valero Energy.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $63.92, with an initial trailing stop set at $64.87. With a recent price of $65.86, upward price movement will find resistance at $71.19 and again at $73.84. Downward price movement will find support at $63.16 and again at $60.12, with final support found at $57.32.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $59. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $48. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $88.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $64. Earnings during that time period averaged $9.28 per share and the average PE Ratio was 7. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 12.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 148.90 shares of stock with a cost basis of $67.16 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $40.50 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $159.87 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $6,190 a loss of (38)%.

Hess Corporation (NYSE: HES) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $53 initiate target, but below my most recent $110 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/21/19

A Quickie With CVR Energy

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
CVR Energy is a diversified holding company primarily engaged in the petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing industries through its holdings in CVR Refining, LP and CVR Partners, LP. Industry peers include HollyFrontier Corporation, Koch Industries,
and National Refinery Cooperative Association.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $43.11, with an initial trailing stop set at $42.44. With a recent price of $43.09, upward price movement will find resistance NO resistance. Downward price movement will find support at $41.57 and again at $40.32, with final support found at $38.13.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $71. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $43. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $93.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $56. Earnings during that time period averaged $3.68 per share and the average PE Ratio was 10. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 9.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 230.26 shares of stock with a cost basis of $43.43 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $34.48 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $615.59 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $8,555 a loss of (14)%.

CVR Energy, Inc. (NYSE: CVI) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my most recent $56 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/18/19

A Quickie With Adams Resources and Energy

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Adams Resources and Energy is engaged in the business of crude oil marketing, tank truck transportation of liquid chemicals, and oil and gas exploration and production. Industry peers include Abraxas Petroleum Corporation, The Dana Companies, and Wynne Transport Services.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $43.03, with an initial trailing stop set at $35.76. With a recent price of $36.30, upward price movement will find resistance at $37.07, and again at $38.43, with final resistance found at $40.19. Downward price movement will find NO support.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $44. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $28. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $59.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $78. Earnings during that time period averaged $6.50 per share and the average PE Ratio was 7. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 11.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 145.99 shares of stock with a cost basis of $68.50 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $38.71 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $128.46 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $5,780 a loss of (42)%.

Adams Resources and Energy, Inc. (NYSE: AE) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $35 initiate target, but below my most recent $73 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/17/19

A Quickie With WPX Energy

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
WPX Energy is engaged in the oil, natural gas, and NGL development and production business primarily in Texas, North Dakota, New Mexico and Colorado. The company specializes in the development and production from tight-sands and shale formations. Listed competitors include Exxon Mobil Corporation, Occidental Petroleum Corporation, and EnCana Corporation.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $15.15, with an initial trailing stop set at $14.28. With a recent price of $14.50, upward price movement will find resistance at $15.44, and again at $16.28, with final resistance found at $17.85. Downward price movement will find support at $13.46, and again at $12.96, with final support found at $12.22.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $41. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $45. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $34.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $34. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.47 per share and the average PE Ratio was 5. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 6.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 490.68 shares of stock with a cost basis of $20.38 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $11.35 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $5,569, a loss of (44)%.

WPX Energy, Inc. (NYSE: WPX) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my most recent $20 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/16/19

A Quickie With Pioneer Natural Resources

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Pioneer Natural Resources is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company that explores for, develops and produces oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and natural gas within the United States. The company operates primarily in the Permian Basin in West Texas, the Eagle Ford Shale play in South Texas, the Raton field in southeast Colorado and the West Panhandle field in the Texas Panhandle. Industry peers include BP plc, Chesapeake Energy, and Apache Corporation.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $161.86, with an initial trailing stop set at $165.80. With a recent price of $168.32, upward price movement will find resistance at $173.66, and again at $182.10. Downward price movement will find support at $161.47, and again at $152.08, with final support found at $147.84.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $318. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $233. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $190.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $81. Earnings during that time period averaged $12.49 per share and the average PE Ratio was 13. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 8.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 53.46 shares of stock with a cost basis of $187.07 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $131.52 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $6.81 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $7,037, a loss of (30)%.

Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $114 initiate target, but below my most recent $237 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/15/19

A Quickie With Occidental Petroleum

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Occidental Petroleum’s businesses consist of three principal segments, Oil and Gas, Chemicals, and Midstream and Marketing. The oil and gas segment explores for, develops and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and natural gas. The chemical segment (OxyChem) mainly manufactures and markets basic chemicals and vinyls. The midstream, marketing and other segment (midstream and marketing) gathers, processes, transports, stores, purchases and markets oil, condensate, NGLs, natural gas, carbon dioxide (CO2) and power. Industry peers include E. I. du Pont de Nemours, Exxon Mobil, and BPplc.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $74.52, with an initial trailing stop set at $64.35. With a recent price of $65.33, upward price movement will find resistance at $67.20, and again at $70.19, with final resistance found at $72.52. Downward price movement will find support at $63.85 with final support found at $60.60.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $189. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $180. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $148.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $76. Earnings during that time period averaged $10.10 per share and the average PE Ratio was 8. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 6.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 109.57 shares of stock with a cost basis of $91.27 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $61.38 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $327.98 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $7,053, a loss of (29)%.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my most recent $89 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/14/19

A Quickie With Oasis Petroleum, Inc.

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Oasis Petroleum is an independent exploration and production company focused on the acquisition and development of unconventional oil and natural gas resources in the North Dakota and Montana regions of the Williston Basin. Industry peers include Encore Energy Partners, Marathon Oil Corporation, and SM Energy Company.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $8.14, with an initial trailing stop set at $6.52. With a recent price of $6.62, upward price movement will find resistance at $7.49, and again at $8.39, with final resistance found at $9.74. Downward price movement will find support at $6.37 and again at $5.93 with final support found at $5.61.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $45. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $41. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $42.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $24. Earnings during that time period averaged $3.07 per share and the average PE Ratio was 6. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 2.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 212.90 shares of stock with a cost basis of $46.97 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $5.53 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $1,177, a loss of (88)%.

Oasis Petroleum, Inc. (NYSE: OAS) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my most recent $25 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/13/19

A Quickie With Noble Energy

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Noble Energy is an independent energy company engaged in worldwide crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) exploration and production. Listed competitors are EOG Resources Inc., Apache Corporation, and ConocoPhillips.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $27.03, with an initial trailing stop set at $24.75. With a recent price of $25.13, upward price movement will find resistance at $25.69, and again at $27.11, with final resistance found at $29.24. Downward price movement will find support at $23.71 and again at $22.76 with final support found at $21.61.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $73. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $7. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $63.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $49. Earnings during that time period averaged $5.05 per share and the average PE Ratio was 9. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 5.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 146.82 shares of stock with a cost basis of $68.11 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $18.76 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $76.21 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $2,831, a loss of (72)%.

Noble Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NBL) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my most recent $38 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/12/19

A Quickie With EOG Resources

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
EOG Resources explores for, develops, produces and markets crude oil and natural gas primarily in major producing basins in the United States, Canada, Trinidad and Tobago, the United Kingdom, and China. Listed competitors are Anadarko Petroleum, Apache Corporation, and Sonde Resources.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $109.09, with an initial trailing stop set at $97.25. With a recent price of $98.73, upward price movement will find resistance at $102.84, and again at $106.11, with final resistance found at $115.05. Downward price movement will find support at $95.27 and again at $87.03.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $191. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $117. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $141.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $77. Earnings during that time period averaged $10.48 per share and the average PE Ratio was 9. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 8.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 119.16 shares of stock with a cost basis of $83.92 per share. With a stock split in April 2014 your shares would have increased to 238.32 and your adjusted cost basis would have been $41.96 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $87.21 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $155.16 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $20,939, a gain of 109%.

EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE: EOG) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $85 initiate target, but below my most recent $176 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/11/19

A Quickie With Continental Resources

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Diamondback Energy is an independent oil and natural gas company focused on the acquisition, development, exploration and exploitation of unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin of West Texas. Listed competitors are Concho Resources, Linn Energy, and Occidental Permian, Ltd..

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $116.27, with an initial trailing stop set at $101.30. With a recent price of $102.84, upward price movement will find resistance at $104.57, and again at $110.31, with final resistance found at $113.99. Downward price movement will find support at $97.14 and again at $92.40, with final support found at $88.77.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $117. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $97. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $16.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $43. Earnings during that time period averaged $5.07 per share and the average PE Ratio was 16. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 13.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 189.11 shares of stock with a cost basis of $52.88 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $92.70 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $8.59 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $17,539, a gain of 75%.

Diamondback Energy, Inc. (Nasdaq: FANG) – FYE 12/2018 – OVER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $26 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/10/19

A Quickie With Continental Resources

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Continental Resources is an independent crude oil and natural gas exploration and production company with properties in the North, South and East regions of the United States. The North region consists of properties north of Kansas and west of the Mississippi River and includes North Dakota Bakken, Montana Bakken, and the Red River units. The South region includes Kansas and all properties south of Kansas and west of the Mississippi River including various plays in the South Central Oklahoma Oil Province (“SCOOP”), Northwest Cana, and Arkoma areas of Oklahoma. The East region is comprised of undeveloped leasehold acreage east of the Mississippi River. Industry peers include Chesapeake Energy, Abraxas Petroleum, and EOG Resources.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $52.53, with an initial trailing stop set at $46.30. With a recent price of $47, upward price movement will find resistance at $50.37, and again at $53.32, with final resistance found at $59.99. Downward price movement will find support at $45.97 and again at $44.62, with final support found at $42.39.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $121. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $59. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $139.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $47. Earnings during that time period averaged $5.84 per share and the average PE Ratio was 8. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 6.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 177.75 shares of stock with a cost basis of $56.26 per share. With a stock split in September 2014 your shares would have increased to 355.5 and your adjusted cost basis would have been $28.13 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $40.19 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $14,287, a gain of 43%.

Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE: CLR) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my $83 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/07/19

A Quickie With Contango Oil and Gas Company

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Contango Oil and Gas Company is an independent oil and natural gas company, engaged in the exploration, development, exploitation, production and acquisition of crude oil and natural gas properties in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico and in the onshore Texas Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountain regions of the United States. Listed competitors are BP plc, Newfield Exploration, and Linn Energy.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $4.43, with an initial trailing stop set at $3.28. With a recent price of $3.33, upward price movement will find resistance at $3.84, and again at $4.08, with final resistance found at $5.02. Downward price movement will find support at $3.09.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $8. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $0. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $11.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $44. Earnings during that time period averaged $3.73 per share and the average PE Ratio was 5. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 6.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 211.60 shares of stock with a cost basis of $47.26 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $3.25 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $688 for a loss of 93%.

Contango Oil and Gas Company (NYSE: MCF) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my $7 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/07/19

A Quickie With Phillips 66

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Phillips 66 operates in four operating segments. Midstream- Gathers, processes, transports and markets natural gas; and transports, fractionates and markets natural gas liquids (NGL) in the United States and transports refinery crude. Chemicals – Manufactures and markets petrochemicals and plastics on a worldwide basis. Refining – Buys, sells and refines crude oil and other feedstocks at 14 refineries. Marketing and Specialties – Purchases for resale and markets refined petroleum products. This segment includes the manufacturing and marketing of specialty products, as well as power generation operations. Listed competitors are Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Shell Oil Products US, and Valero Energy Corporation.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $107.06, with an initial trailing stop set at $96.32. With a recent price of $97.79, upward price movement will find resistance at $102.80, and again at $109.12, with final resistance found at $113.00. Downward price movement will find support at $94.86 and again at $92.60, leaving support at $89.14.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $239. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $149. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $192.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $76. Earnings during that time period averaged $9.19 per share and the average PE Ratio was 9. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 6.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 129.65 shares of stock with a cost basis of $77.13 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $101.15 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $326.37 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $13,441 for a gain of 34%.

Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my $115 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/07/19

A Quickie With ConocoPhillips

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
ConocoPhillips is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company, exploring for, producing, transporting and marketing, crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, LNG and natural gas liquids. The company was formed via a merger between Conoco Inc. and Phillips Petroleum Company and has now separated its downstream business into an independent, publicly traded energy company, Phillips 66 (PSX). Listed competitors include Exxon Mobil Corporation, Royal Dutch Shell,
and BP plc.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $73.50, with an initial trailing stop set at $65.13. With a recent price of $66.12, upward price movement will find resistance at $66.86, and again at $68.19, with final resistance found at $70.17. Downward price movement will find support at $63.98 and again at $61.82.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $171. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $69. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $152.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $71. Earnings during that time period averaged $9.58 per share and the average PE Ratio was 6. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 6.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 141.54 shares of stock with a cost basis of $70.65 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $62.35 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $258.78 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $9,084 for a loss of 9%.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my $91 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/07/19

A Quickie With Callon Petroleum Company

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Callon Petroleum is an independent oil and natural gas company focused on the acquisition and development of unconventional onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin located in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Industry peers include Apache Corporation, Carrizo Oil and Gas, Inc., and SM Energy Company.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $9.23, with an initial trailing stop set at $7.61. With a recent price of $7.73, upward price movement will find resistance at $8.04, and again at $8.39, with final resistance found at $8.89. Downward price movement will find support at $7.28 and again at $7.03, and leave support at $6.49.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $32. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $30. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $23.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $14. Earnings during that time period averaged $0.76 per share and the average PE Ratio was 13. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 4.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 1531.39 shares of stock with a cost basis of $6.53 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $6.49 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $9,939 for a loss of 1%.

Callon Petroleum Company (NYSE: CPE) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my $14 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/06/19

A Quickie With Apache Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Apache Corporation is an independent energy company that explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids. Industry peers include Anadarko Petroleum Corporation, BP plc, and Exxon Mobil Corporation.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $38.60, with an initial trailing stop set at $32.87. With a recent price of $33.37, upward price movement will find resistance at $35.67, and again at $37.34, with final resistance found at $42.91. Downward price movement will find support at $31.29 and again at $30.12, and leave support at $26.94.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $122. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $(1). Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $103.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $90. Earnings during that time period averaged $12.91 per share and the average PE Ratio was 5. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 4.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 116.36 shares of stock with a cost basis of $85.94 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $26.25 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $116.07 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $3,171 for a loss of 68%.

Apache Corporation (NYSE: APA) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my $62 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/05/19

A Quickie With Anadarko Petroleum Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Anadarko Petroleum is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company, developing, acquiring, and exploring for oil and natural-gas resources in the Rocky Mountains, the southern United States, the Appalachian basin, and Alaska. The company is also a producer in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. Listed competitors are BP plc, Conoco Phillips, and Exxon Mobile Corporation.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $54.82, with an initial trailing stop set at $43.80. With a recent price of $44.47, upward price movement will find resistance at $45.71, and again at $48.39, with final resistance found at $52.08. Downward price movement will find support at $42.29.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $200. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $179. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $141.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $66. Earnings during that time period averaged $9.52 per share and the average PE Ratio was 7. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 4.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 126.07 shares of stock with a cost basis of $79.32 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $43.84 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $89.43 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $5,616 a loss of 44%.

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my $84 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/04/19