Banner
Quickies

A Quickie With Steel Dynamics

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am not a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Steel Dynamics is a domestic manufacturer of steel products and a metals recycler. Industry peers include Nucor Corporation, United States Steel Corporation, and AK Steel Holding Corporation.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $41.18, with an initial trailing stop set at $35.26. With a recent price of $35.80, upward price movement will find resistance at $36.85, and again at $37.81, with final resistance coming at $38.82. Downward price movement will find support at $34.99, and again at $33.19.00, leaving support at $31.79.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $93. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $89. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $91.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $41. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.22 per share and the average PE Ratio was 12.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 511.77 shares of stock with a cost basis of $19.54. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $30.04 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $296.18 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $15,670 for an overall return of 57%.

Steel Dynamics, Inc. (Nasdaq: STLD) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels below my $55 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/22/19

A Quickie With Gibraltar Industries, Inc.

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am not a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Gibraltar Industries is a manufacturer and distributor of roof and foundation ventilation products, mail and package storage products, rain dispersion products and roof ventilation accessories, fabricated bar grating for industrial flooring, expanded and perforated metal, plus expansion joints and structural bearings for roadways and bridges. Industry peers include American Buildings Company, Simpson Manufacturing, and Commercial Metals.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $41.54, with an initial trailing stop set at $39.46. With a recent price of $40.06, upward price movement will find resistance at $42.13, and again at $44.91, with final resistance coming at $46.08. Downward price movement will find support at $37.67, and again at $36.00, leaving support at $35.00.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $31. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $41. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $45.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $32. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.09 per share and the average PE Ratio was 19.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 537.92 shares of stock with a cost basis of $18.59. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $35.59 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $19,145 for an overall return of 91%.

AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE: AKS) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels below my $16 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/20/19

A Quickie With AK Steel Holding Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am not a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
AK Steel consists of eight steel making and finishing plants, two coke plants and two tube manufacturing plants across six states producing flat-rolled value-added carbon steels, including premium-quality coated, cold-rolled and hot-rolled carbon steel products, and specialty stainless and electrical steels that are sold in sheet and strip form, as well as carbon and stainless steel that is finished into welded steel tubing. Listed competitors include Steel Dynamics, United States Steel, Nucor Corporation.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $3.59, with an initial trailing stop set at $2.66. With a recent price of $2.70, upward price movement will find resistance at $2.95, and again at $3.19, with final resistance coming at $3.67. Downward price movement will find support at $2.59, and again at $2.26.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $18. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $11. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $27.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $13. Earnings during that time period averaged $0.76 per share and the average PE Ratio was 8.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 1,291.51 shares of stock with a cost basis of $8.20. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $2.25 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $2,744 or (15)% per year.

AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE: AKS) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels below my $16 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/20/19

A Quickie With Clevaland-Cliffs, Inc.

Cautionary Note
I normally have no reservations once I have completed my valuation of a company, but this one was different. I valued the company year-over-year starting with FYE 2007. As always, the financial data that I use is take directly from a company’s 10-K filing as obtained from the SEC website. The reason I say use caution with this stock, is because during my valuation process, the financial data kept changing.

For example, FYE 2017 10-K total sales were listed as $2330.4 million. But on the FYE 2018 10-K prior year total sales were listed as $1866.0 million. While there was a FYE 2017 10-K/A filing, the amendment had to do with the company’s request for Confidential Treatment of specific Exhibits it did not include with its 10-K, not changes to its financial statements.

The other thing to be aware of, is that for FYE 2014 through FYE 2018 much of the company’s income, in some cases all of the company’s income, was the result of income tax benefits, not from its business operations. So please take your time. Be relentless in you research should you decide this company may benefit your portfolio. Valuations are one thing, your hard earned dollars are another.

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am not a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Cleveland-Cliffs is an independent iron ore mining company, supplying iron ore pellets to the North American steel industry from mines and pellet plants located in Michigan and Minnesota. Industry peers include BHP Group Ltd., ArcelorMittal, and Rio Tinto Ltd.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $10.79, with an initial trailing stop set at $9.81. With a recent price of $9.96, upward price movement will find resistance at $10.24, and again at $10.78, with final resistance coming at $11.20. Downward price movement will find support at $9.31, and again at $9.02, leaving support at $8.67.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $70. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $182. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $55.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $10. Earnings during that time period averaged $(8.91) per share and the average PE Ratio was (1).

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 381.53 shares of stock with a cost basis of $26.61. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/18), you would have closed at $7.27 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $45.78 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $2,820 or (14)% per year.

Clevaland-Cliffs, Inc. (NYSE: CLF) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels below my $33 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/19/19

A Quickie With Superior Energy Services

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Superior Energy rents and sells specialized equipment and tools for use with well drilling, completion, production and workover activities. The company also provides pressure pumping, fluid handling and well servicing rigs as well as providing services which enhance, maintain and extend oil and gas production during the life of the well. Industry peers include Baker Hughes, Parker Drilling, and Schlumberger Ltd.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $5.77, with an initial trailing stop set at $4.33. With a recent price of $4.40, upward price movement will find resistance at $4.80, and again at $5.11, with final resistance coming at $6.37. Downward price movement will find support at $3.91, and again at $3.15.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $27. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $14. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $40.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $46. Earnings during that time period averaged $4.42 per share and the average PE Ratio was 4.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 375.80 shares of stock with a cost basis of $26.61. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/18), you would have closed at $3.35 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $54.87 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $1,314 or (17)% per year.

Superior Energy Services, Inc. (NYSE: SPN) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels below my $24 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/13/19

A Quickie With Koppers Holdings

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Koppers Holdings is an integrated provider of treated wood products, wood treatment chemicals, and carbon compounds. The company’s products and services are used in a variety of niche applications in a diverse range of end-markets, including the railroad, specialty chemical, utility, residential lumber, agriculture, aluminum, steel, rubber, and construction industries. Industry peers include Kmg Chemicals, Inc., Velsicol Chemical LLC, and Mitsubishi Chemical Corporation.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $26.38, with an initial trailing stop set at $25.90. With a recent price of $26.29, upward price movement will find resistance at $28.27, again at $30.23, with final resistance coming at $31.67. Downward price movement will find support at $25.05, again at $22.81, leaving support at $21.24.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $56. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $10. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $55.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $35. Earnings during that time period averaged $4.00 per share and the average PE Ratio was 9.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 218.58 shares of stock with a cost basis of $45.75. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/18), you would have closed at $17.04 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $62.08 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $3,787 or (12)% per year.

Koppers Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: KOP) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels below my $33 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/12/19

A Quickie With Cambrex Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Cambrex is a life sciences company that provides products and services that accelerate and improve the development and commercialization of new and generic therapeutics, supplying its products and services to innovator and generic pharmaceutical companies. Industry peers include Aceto Corporation, Sigma-Aldrich Corporation, and Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $49.14, with an initial trailing stop set at $37.91. With a recent price of $38.49, upward price movement will find resistance at $41.24 and again at $43.52, with final resistance coming at $47.79. Downward price movement will find support at $36.17.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $37. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $36. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $45.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $43. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.18 per share and the average PE Ratio was 17.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 560.85 shares of stock with a cost basis of $17.83. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/18), you would have closed at $37.76 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $21,178 or 22% per year.

Cambrex Corporation (NYSE: CBM) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $27 initiate target, but below my most recent $45 baseline value estimate. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/11/19

A Quickie With Matson, Inc.

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Matson, Inc., is holding company that provides ocean transportation and logistics. The company’s Hawaii service provides ocean freight services (lift-on/lift-off, roll-on/roll-off and conventional services) between the ports of Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, and the major ports in Hawaii. Westbound cargo carried by the company to Hawaii includes dry containers of mixed commodities, refrigerated commodities, packaged foods, building materials, automobiles and household goods. Eastbound cargo carried by the company from Hawaii includes automobiles, household goods, dry containers of mixed commodities, food and beverages, and livestock. Industry peers include Crowley Maritime Corporation, Hub Group, Inc., The Pasha Group.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $37.90, with an initial trailing stop set at $34.61. With a recent price of $35.14, upward price movement will find resistance at $36.10 and again at $37.49, with final resistance coming at $38.54. Downward price movement will find support at $33.54 and again at $32.86, and leave support at $32.18.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $77. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $124. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $(4).

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $33. Earnings during that time period averaged $1.33 per share.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 383 shares of stock with a cost basis of $26.11. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/18), you would have closed at $32.02 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $286.22 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $12,550 or 5% per year.

Matson, Inc. (NYSE: MATX) – FYE 12/2018 – OVER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $(7) terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/10/19

A Quickie With Encana Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am not a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

What They Do
Encana Corporation is engaged in the exploration, development, and production and marketing of natural gas, oil and natural gas liquids. Industry peers include Apache Corporation, Chesapeake Energy Corporation, and Repsol Oil and Gas Canada, Inc.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $8.45, with an initial trailing stop set at $6.71. With a recent price of $6.81, upward price movement will find resistance at $7.28 and again at $7.75, with final resistance coming at $8.76. Downward price movement will find support at $6.15 and again at $5.65.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $50. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $180. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $44.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $37. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.47 per share.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 554.02 shares of stock with a cost basis of $18.05. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it (12/18), you would have sold for $5.78 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $68.51 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $3,271 or (13)% per year.

Encana Corporation (NYSE: ECA) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels below my $26 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/08/19

A Quickie With ExxonMobil Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

What They Do
The principal business of Exxon Mobil Corporation is energy, involving exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas, manufacture of petroleum products and transportation and sale of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products. The company is also a manufacturer and marketer of commodity petrochemicals, including olefins, aromatics, polyethylene and polypropylene plastics and a wide variety of specialty products. Industry peers include BP plc, Chevron Corporation, and Royal Dutch Shell.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $82.58, with an initial trailing stop set at $78.09. With a recent price of $79.28, upward price movement will find resistance at $81.71 and again at $83.45, with final resistance coming at $86.38. Downward price movement will find support at $77.14, again at $75.32, and leave support at $71.85.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $125. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $83. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $136.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $80. Earnings during that time period averaged $9.77 per share.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 98.81 shares of stock with a cost basis of $101.20. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it (12/18), you would have sold for $68.19 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $296.41 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $7,035 or (6)% per year.

ExxonMobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels below my $81 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/07/19

A Quickie With Wabash National Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

What They Do
Wabash National Corporation is an industrial manufacturer of semi-trailers and liquid transportation systems. The company designs, manufactures, and markets dry freight and refrigerated trailers, platform trailers, bulk tank trailers, dry and refrigerated truck bodies, truck-mounted tanks, intermodal equipment, aircraft refueling equipment, structural composite panels and products, trailer aerodynamic solutions, specialty food grade and pharmaceutical equipment.
Listed competitors include Great Dane Limited Partnership, Trinity Industries, and Utility Trailer Manufacturing Company.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $16.15, with an initial trailing stop set at $13.96. With a recent price of $14.17, upward price movement will find resistance at $14.80 and againa at $15.37, with final resistance coming at $15.93. Downward price movement will find support at $13.62, again at $13.16, and leave support at $12.50.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $24. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $10. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $32.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $33. Earnings during that time period averaged $1.92 per share.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 809.72 shares of stock with a cost basis of $12.35. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it (12/18), you would have sold for $13.08 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $95.90 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $10,687 or 1% per year.

Wabash National Corporation (NYSE: WNC) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels below my $19 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/06/19

A Quickie With Kinder Morgan

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

What They Do
Kinder Morgan is an energy infrastructure company that owns an interest in, and/or operates, 84,000 miles of pipelines that transport natural gas, refined petroleum products, crude oil, condensate, CO2 and other products and 180 terminals that transload and store petroleum products, ethanol and chemicals, and handle such products as coal, petroleum coke and steel. The company also produces and transports CO2, which is utilized for enhanced oil recovery projects in North America. Listed competitors include Williams Companies, Enterprise Products Partners LP, and American Midstream Partners LP.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $19.30, with an initial trailing stop set at $19.55. With a recent price of $19.85, upward price movement will find no resistance, while downward price movement will find support at $19.26, again at $18.09, and leave support at $17.70.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $23. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $28. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $31.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $26. Earnings during that time period averaged $1.47 per share.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 277.78 shares of stock with a cost basis of $36. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it (12/18), you would have sold for $15.38 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $246.93 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $4,519 or (11)% per year.

Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE: KMI) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $19 initiate target, but below my most recent $31 baseline value estimate. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/05/19

A Quickie With McDermott International

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

What They Do
McDermott International provides integrated engineering, procurement, construction and installation (“EPCI”) and module fabrication services for upstream oil and gas field development worldwide. The company delivers fixed and floating production facilities, pipeline installations and subsea systems from concept to commissioning for complex offshore and subsea oil and gas projects. Industry peers include Superior Energy Services, Gulf Island Fabrication, and Oceaneering International.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $10.86, with an initial trailing stop set at $8.97. With a recent price of $9.11, upward price movement will find resistance at $9.86 and again at $13.07, with breakout resistance coming at $15.96. Downward price movement will find support at $8.58, again at $7.68, and leave support at $7.09.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $(6). Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $(12). Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $5.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $11. Earnings during that time period averaged $(0.07) per share.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 1091.70 shares of stock with a cost basis of $9.16. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it (12/18), you would have sold for $6.54 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $7,140 or (6)% per year.

McDermott International, Inc. (NYSE: MDR) – FYE 12/2018 – OVER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $8 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/04/19

A Quickie With General Electric Company

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

What They Do
General Electric Company is a digital industrial company working with industry to create purposeful software-defined machines and solutions that are connected, responsive and predictive. The company produces products that serve the aircraft industry, the power industry, the oil and gas industry, the medical industry, and the financing and industrial products industries. Listed competitors are Citigroup, Koninklijke Philips NV, and Siemens Aktiengesellschaft.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $62.51, with an initial trailing stop set at $10.31. With a recent price of $10.27, upward price movement will find resistance at $10.64 and again at $12.23, with breakout resistance coming at $13.05. Downward price movement will find support at $9.76, again at $8.68, and leave support at $8.23.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $11. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $11. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $14.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $26. Earnings during that time period averaged $3 per share.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 356.76 shares of stock with a cost basis of $28.03. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it (12/18), you would have sold for $7.29 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $314.23 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $2,911 or (14)% per year.

General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $8 initiate target, but below my most recent $14 baseline value estimate. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/01/19

A Quickie With HollyFrontier Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

What They Do
HollyFrontier is an independent petroleum refiner that produces high-value refined products such as gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, specialty lubricant products, and specialty and modified asphalt. Listed competitors include Valero Energy Corporation, Exxon Mobil Corporation, and Western Refining.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $62.51, with an initial trailing stop set at $51.25. With a recent price of $52.03, upward price movement will find resistance at $53.14 and again at $55.45, with breakout resistance coming at $57.71. Downward price movement will find support at $51.08.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $132. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $112. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $136.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $56. Earnings during that time period averaged $5.12 per share.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 201.25 shares of stock with a cost basis of $49.69. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it (12/18), you would have sold for $51.12 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $351.28 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $10,639 or 1% per year.

HollyFrontier Corporation (NYSE: HFC) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels below my $82 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/01/19

A Quickie With The Middleby Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company.

My intent is to provide you with a brief overview of the company’s various valuations, based on their latest 10-K filing so you can determine if you personally have any investment interest.

What They Do
The Middleby Corporation is a designer, manufacturer, marketer, distributer, and servicer of foodservice equipment used in commercial restaurants and institutional kitchens, of foodservice equipment used for food preparation, cooking, baking, chilling and packaging equipment for food processing operations, and of premium kitchen equipment including ranges, ovens, refrigerators, ventilation and dishwashers primarily used in the residential market. Industry peers include Illinois Tool Works Inc., AB Electrolux, and Welbilt, Inc.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $126.36, with an initial trailing stop set at $120.75. With a recent price of $122.59, upward price movement will find resistance at $125.86 and again at $129.94. Downward price movement will find support at $120.60 and again at $115.97, leaving support at $113.19.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $74. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $120. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $86.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $51. Earnings during that time period averaged $8.00 per year.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 125.14shares of stock with a cost basis of $79.91. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it (12/18), you would have sold for $102.73 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $12,856 or 6% per year.

The Middleby Corporation (Nasdaq: MIDD) – FYE 12/2018 – SELL HALF The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $86 baseline value estimate, but below my most recent $138 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 02/28/19

A Quickie With Kirby Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. My intent is to provide you with a brief overview of the company’s various valuations, based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you personally have any investment interest.

What They Do
Kirby Corporation is a domestic tank barge operator, transporting petrochemicals, black oil, refined petroleum products and agricultural chemicals throughout the Mississippi River System, on the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway, coastwise along all three United States coasts, and in Alaska and Hawaii. The company also transports dry-bulk commodities in the United States coastal trade and provides after-market services for medium-speed and high-speed diesel engines, reduction gears and ancillary products for marine and power generation applications, distributes and services high-speed diesel engines, transmissions and pumps, and manufactures and remanufactures oilfield service equipment, including pressure pumping units, for the land-based oilfield service and oil and gas operator and producer markets. Industry peers include Ingram Industries, Inc., Compagnie des Chemins de Fer Nationaux du Canada, and American Commercial Lines, Inc.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $79.62, with an initial trailing stop set at $74.49. With a current price of $75.62, upward price movement will find resistance at $77.09 and again at $79.40, with final resistance entering at $81.62. Downward price movement will find support at $72.32 and again at $68.38, leaving support at $66.90.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $82. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $55. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $92.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $72. Earnings during that time period averaged $8.00 per year.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 100.76shares of stock with a cost basis of $99.25 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it (12/18), you would have sold for $67.36 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $6,787 or (6)% per year.

Kirby Corporation (NYSE: KEX) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $55 initiate target, but below my most recent $92 baseline value estimate. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 02/28/19

A Quickie With Bristol Meyers Squibb Company

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. My intent is to provide you with a brief overview of the company’s various valuations, based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you personally have any investment interest.

What They Do
Bristol-Myers Squibb is engaged in the discovery, development, licensing, manufacturing, marketing, distribution and sale of biopharmaceutical (drug) products. Listed competitors include AstraZeneca plc, Pfizer, Inc., and Roche Holding AG.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $55.94, with an initial trailing stop set at $49.41. With a current price of $50.16, upward price movement will find resistance at $51.73 and again at $53.46, with final resistance at $57.74. Downward price movement will find support at $47.51.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $0. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $0. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $39.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $29. Earnings during that time period averaged $0.96 per year.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 188.15 shares of stock with a cost basis of $53.15 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it (12/18), you would have sold for $51.98 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $287.50 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $10,067 or 0.14% per year.

Bristol Meyers Squibb Company, Inc. (NYSE: BMY) – FYE 12/2018 – SELL HALF The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $39 baseline value estimate, but below my most recent $63 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 02/27/19

A Quickie With Chart Industries

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. Based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, my intent is to provide you with a brief overview of the company’s various valuations so you can determine if you personally have any investment interest.

What They Do
Chart Industries is a manufacturer of highly engineered equipment used for low-temperature and cryogenic applications which operate at temperatures approaching absolute zero. Their products include vacuum insulated containment vessels, heat exchangers, cold boxes and other cryogenic components, primarily for the industrial gas, energy, and biomedical industries. Listed industry peers include Linde AG, Matrix Service Company, and Praxair.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $79.08, with an initial trailing stop set at $86.29. With a current price of $87.60, upward price movement will find no resistance while downward price movement will find support at $85.19 and again at $78.08, and leave support at $75.82.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $63. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $104. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $55.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $46. Earnings during that time period averaged $1.72 per year.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 104.56 shares of stock with a cost basis of $95.64 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it (12/18), you would have sold for $65.03 per share. You would have collected no dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $6,799 or (6)% per year.

Chart Industries, Inc. (Nasdaq: GTLS) – FYE 12/2018 – SELL HALF The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $55 baseline value estimate, but below my most recent $89 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 02/26/19

A Nooner With Chevron Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. Based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, my intent is to provide you with a brief overview of the company’s various valuations so you can determine if you personally have any investment interest.

What They Do
Chevron Corporation, manages its investments in subsidiaries and affiliates and provides administrative, financial, management and technology support to U.S. and international subsidiaries that engage in fully integrated petroleum operations, chemicals operations, mining operations, and power and energy services. Listed competitors are BP plc, Exxon Mobil Corporation, and Royal Dutch Shell plc.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $124.73, with an initial trailing stop set at $117.60. With a current price of $119.39, upward price movement will find resistance at $122.31 and again at $124.93, with final resistance showing at $127.17. Downward price movement will find support at $117.65 and again at $115.30, and leave support at $112.58.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $270. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $186. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $253.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $98. Earnings during that time period averaged $15.28 per year.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 80.06 shares of stock with a cost basis of $124.91 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it (12/18), you would have sold for $108.79 per share. You would collected $343.20 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $9,053 or (2)% per year.

Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels below my $152 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 02/25/19

Angel Finds a Note

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. Based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, my intent is to provide you with a brief overview of the company’s various valuations so you can determine if you personally have any investment interest.

What They Do
AutoNation, through its subsidiaries, is an automotive retailer. The core brands of new vehicles the company sells are manufactured by Toyota, Ford, Honda, Nissan, General Motors, Mercedes-Benz, Chrysler, BMW, and Volkswagen. The company also offers new and used vehicle financing, and new and used vehicle parts and service. Listed competitors are Group 1 Automotive, Penske Automotive Group, and Sonic Automotive.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $41.58, with an initial trailing stop set at $36.67. With a current price of $37.23, upward price movement will find resistance at $38.91 and again at $40.18, with final resistance showing at $42.31. Downward price movement will find support at $33.83.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $89. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $37. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $91.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $51. Earnings during that time period averaged $5.11 per year.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 201.25 shares of stock with a cost basis of $49.69 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it (12/18), you would have sold for $35.70 per share. You would collected no dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $7,185 or (6)% per year.

AutoNation, Inc. (NYSE: AN) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels below my $54 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 02/24/19

Mr. James Buys a Nephelometer Jar

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. Based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, my intent is to provide you with a brief overview of the company’s various valuations so you can determine if you personally have any investment interest.

What They Do
Johnson & Johnson is a holding company whose subsidiaries are engaged in the research and development, manufacture and sale of a broad range of health care field products in the consumer, pharmaceutical, and medical devices markets. Industry peers include Bristol Meyers Squibb Company, Inc., Eli Lilly and Company, Inc., and Merck and Company, Inc..

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $143.97, with an initial trailing stop set at $134.55. With a current price of $136.60, upward price movement will find resistance at $139.26 and again at $141.30, with final resistance showing at $146.90. Downward price movement will find support at $134.86 and then at $132.23, with final support found at $130.06.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $298. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $431. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $97.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $61. Earnings during that time period averaged $4.76 per year.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 109.18 shares of stock with a cost basis of $91.59 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it (12/18), you would have sold for $129.05 per share. You would have also collected $345.78 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $14,436 or 9% per year.

Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) – FYE 12/2018 – SELL HALF The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $97 baseline value estimate, but below my most recent $155 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 02/24/19

Mavis Mauls a Mellon

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. Based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, my intent is to provide you with a brief overview of the company’s various valuations so you can determine if you personally have any investment interest.

What They Do
Goodyear is a manufacturer and distributor of tires and rubber-related chemicals for various applications. The company also is an operator of commercial truck service and tire retreading centers, and tire and auto service center outlets. Listed competitors include Compagnie Generale des Etablissements Michelin SCA, Bridgestone Corporation, and Cooper Tire and Rubber.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $22.69, with an initial trailing stop set at $18.88. With a current price of $19.17, upward price movement will find resistance at $20.48 and again at $21.08, with final resistance showing at $22.03. Downward price movement will find support at $18.58.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $34. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $22. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $51.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $41.83. Earnings during that time period averaged $3.49 per year.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 419.29 shares of stock with a cost basis of $23.85 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it (12/18), you would have sold for $20.41 per share. You would have also collected $155.50 in dividends. Your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $8,713 or (3)% per year.

The Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company (NYSE: GT) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels below my $31 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet
Posted on 02/22/19

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 02/22/19

Carnal Kathy Comes to Kansas

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. Based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, my intent is to provide you with a brief overview of the company’s various valuations so you can determine if you personally have any investment interest.

What They Do
Cooper Tire and Rubber specializes in the design, manufacture, marketing and sales of passenger car and light truck tires. The company also designs, manufactures, and sells medium truck, motorcycle and racing tires. Listed competitors are Bridgestone Corporation, Goodyear Tire and Rubber, and Cie Gen Des Ets Michelin.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $34.60, with an initial trailing stop set at $33.81. With a current price of $34.32, upward price movement will find no resistance while downward price movement will find support at $33.55 and again at $32.53, with final support found at $31.21.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $39. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $36. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $51.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $52.91. Earnings during that time period averaged $3.09 per year.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago, you would have received 415.97 shares of stock and carried a cost basis of $24.04 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it, you would have sold for $32.33 per share. You would have also collected $179.05 in dividends. Your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $13,627 or 7% per year.

Cooper Tire and Rubber Company (NYSE: CTB) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $31 initiate target, but below my most recent $51 baseline value estimate. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet
Posted on 02/21/19

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 02/21/19

Hump’n Harry Buys a Boat

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. Based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, my intent is to provide you with a brief overview of the company’s various valuations so you can determine if you personally have any investment interest.

What They Do
Huntington Ingalls Industries designs, builds, overhauls, and repairs ships primarily for the U.S. Navy and the U.S. Coast Guard. They are the nation’s sole designer, builder, and refueler of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, a builder of amphibious assault and expeditionary warfare ships for the U.S. Navy, the sole builder of National Security Cutters for the U.S. Coast Guard, one of only two companies currently designing and building nuclear-powered submarines for the U.S. Navy and one of only two companies that builds the Navy’s current fleet of DDG-51 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. Industry peers include General Dynamics, BAE Systems, and Electric Boat Corporation.

Short-Term Target
For the very short term investor, my short-term target for the stock is $229.86, with an initial trailing stop set at $214.73. With a current price of $218, upward price movement will find resistance at $229.86 and again at $234.89, with final resistance found at $243.46. Downward price movement will find support at $214.60 and again at $210.21, with final support found at $198.08.

Momentum Target
For the momentum investor, my momentum target for the stock is $281. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
For the growth only investor, my growth target for the stock is $308. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. For the fair value investor, my fair value estimate for the stock is $181.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $67.90. Earnings during that time period averaged $9.09 per year.

Five Year Growth of$10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago, you would have received 111.10 shares with a cost basis of $90.01. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it you would have sold at $190.31. You would have also collect $235.94 in dividends. Your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $21,379, or 23% per year.

Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (NYSE: HII) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $109 initiate target, but below my most recent $181 baseline value estimate. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet
Posted on 02/20/19

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 02/20/19