Banner
Quickies

A Quickie With CVR Energy

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
CVR Energy is a diversified holding company primarily engaged in the petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing industries through its holdings in CVR Refining, LP and CVR Partners, LP. Industry peers include HollyFrontier Corporation, Koch Industries,
and National Refinery Cooperative Association.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $43.11, with an initial trailing stop set at $42.44. With a recent price of $43.09, upward price movement will find resistance NO resistance. Downward price movement will find support at $41.57 and again at $40.32, with final support found at $38.13.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $71. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $43. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $93.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $56. Earnings during that time period averaged $3.68 per share and the average PE Ratio was 10. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 9.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 230.26 shares of stock with a cost basis of $43.43 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $34.48 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $615.59 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $8,555 a loss of (14)%.

CVR Energy, Inc. (NYSE: CVI) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my most recent $56 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/18/19

A Quickie With Adams Resources and Energy

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Adams Resources and Energy is engaged in the business of crude oil marketing, tank truck transportation of liquid chemicals, and oil and gas exploration and production. Industry peers include Abraxas Petroleum Corporation, The Dana Companies, and Wynne Transport Services.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $43.03, with an initial trailing stop set at $35.76. With a recent price of $36.30, upward price movement will find resistance at $37.07, and again at $38.43, with final resistance found at $40.19. Downward price movement will find NO support.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $44. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $28. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $59.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $78. Earnings during that time period averaged $6.50 per share and the average PE Ratio was 7. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 11.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 145.99 shares of stock with a cost basis of $68.50 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $38.71 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $128.46 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $5,780 a loss of (42)%.

Adams Resources and Energy, Inc. (NYSE: AE) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $35 initiate target, but below my most recent $73 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/17/19

A Quickie With WPX Energy

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
WPX Energy is engaged in the oil, natural gas, and NGL development and production business primarily in Texas, North Dakota, New Mexico and Colorado. The company specializes in the development and production from tight-sands and shale formations. Listed competitors include Exxon Mobil Corporation, Occidental Petroleum Corporation, and EnCana Corporation.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $15.15, with an initial trailing stop set at $14.28. With a recent price of $14.50, upward price movement will find resistance at $15.44, and again at $16.28, with final resistance found at $17.85. Downward price movement will find support at $13.46, and again at $12.96, with final support found at $12.22.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $41. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $45. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $34.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $34. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.47 per share and the average PE Ratio was 5. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 6.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 490.68 shares of stock with a cost basis of $20.38 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $11.35 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $5,569, a loss of (44)%.

WPX Energy, Inc. (NYSE: WPX) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my most recent $20 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/16/19

A Quickie With Pioneer Natural Resources

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Pioneer Natural Resources is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company that explores for, develops and produces oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and natural gas within the United States. The company operates primarily in the Permian Basin in West Texas, the Eagle Ford Shale play in South Texas, the Raton field in southeast Colorado and the West Panhandle field in the Texas Panhandle. Industry peers include BP plc, Chesapeake Energy, and Apache Corporation.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $161.86, with an initial trailing stop set at $165.80. With a recent price of $168.32, upward price movement will find resistance at $173.66, and again at $182.10. Downward price movement will find support at $161.47, and again at $152.08, with final support found at $147.84.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $318. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $233. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $190.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $81. Earnings during that time period averaged $12.49 per share and the average PE Ratio was 13. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 8.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 53.46 shares of stock with a cost basis of $187.07 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $131.52 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $6.81 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $7,037, a loss of (30)%.

Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $114 initiate target, but below my most recent $237 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/15/19

A Quickie With Occidental Petroleum

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Occidental Petroleum’s businesses consist of three principal segments, Oil and Gas, Chemicals, and Midstream and Marketing. The oil and gas segment explores for, develops and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and natural gas. The chemical segment (OxyChem) mainly manufactures and markets basic chemicals and vinyls. The midstream, marketing and other segment (midstream and marketing) gathers, processes, transports, stores, purchases and markets oil, condensate, NGLs, natural gas, carbon dioxide (CO2) and power. Industry peers include E. I. du Pont de Nemours, Exxon Mobil, and BPplc.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $74.52, with an initial trailing stop set at $64.35. With a recent price of $65.33, upward price movement will find resistance at $67.20, and again at $70.19, with final resistance found at $72.52. Downward price movement will find support at $63.85 with final support found at $60.60.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $189. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $180. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $148.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $76. Earnings during that time period averaged $10.10 per share and the average PE Ratio was 8. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 6.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 109.57 shares of stock with a cost basis of $91.27 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $61.38 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $327.98 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $7,053, a loss of (29)%.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my most recent $89 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/14/19

A Quickie With Oasis Petroleum, Inc.

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Oasis Petroleum is an independent exploration and production company focused on the acquisition and development of unconventional oil and natural gas resources in the North Dakota and Montana regions of the Williston Basin. Industry peers include Encore Energy Partners, Marathon Oil Corporation, and SM Energy Company.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $8.14, with an initial trailing stop set at $6.52. With a recent price of $6.62, upward price movement will find resistance at $7.49, and again at $8.39, with final resistance found at $9.74. Downward price movement will find support at $6.37 and again at $5.93 with final support found at $5.61.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $45. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $41. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $42.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $24. Earnings during that time period averaged $3.07 per share and the average PE Ratio was 6. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 2.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 212.90 shares of stock with a cost basis of $46.97 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $5.53 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $1,177, a loss of (88)%.

Oasis Petroleum, Inc. (NYSE: OAS) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my most recent $25 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/13/19

A Quickie With Noble Energy

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Noble Energy is an independent energy company engaged in worldwide crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) exploration and production. Listed competitors are EOG Resources Inc., Apache Corporation, and ConocoPhillips.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $27.03, with an initial trailing stop set at $24.75. With a recent price of $25.13, upward price movement will find resistance at $25.69, and again at $27.11, with final resistance found at $29.24. Downward price movement will find support at $23.71 and again at $22.76 with final support found at $21.61.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $73. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $7. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $63.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $49. Earnings during that time period averaged $5.05 per share and the average PE Ratio was 9. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 5.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 146.82 shares of stock with a cost basis of $68.11 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $18.76 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $76.21 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $2,831, a loss of (72)%.

Noble Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NBL) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my most recent $38 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/12/19

A Quickie With EOG Resources

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
EOG Resources explores for, develops, produces and markets crude oil and natural gas primarily in major producing basins in the United States, Canada, Trinidad and Tobago, the United Kingdom, and China. Listed competitors are Anadarko Petroleum, Apache Corporation, and Sonde Resources.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $109.09, with an initial trailing stop set at $97.25. With a recent price of $98.73, upward price movement will find resistance at $102.84, and again at $106.11, with final resistance found at $115.05. Downward price movement will find support at $95.27 and again at $87.03.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $191. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $117. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $141.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $77. Earnings during that time period averaged $10.48 per share and the average PE Ratio was 9. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 8.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 119.16 shares of stock with a cost basis of $83.92 per share. With a stock split in April 2014 your shares would have increased to 238.32 and your adjusted cost basis would have been $41.96 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $87.21 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $155.16 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $20,939, a gain of 109%.

EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE: EOG) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $85 initiate target, but below my most recent $176 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/11/19

A Quickie With Continental Resources

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Diamondback Energy is an independent oil and natural gas company focused on the acquisition, development, exploration and exploitation of unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin of West Texas. Listed competitors are Concho Resources, Linn Energy, and Occidental Permian, Ltd..

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $116.27, with an initial trailing stop set at $101.30. With a recent price of $102.84, upward price movement will find resistance at $104.57, and again at $110.31, with final resistance found at $113.99. Downward price movement will find support at $97.14 and again at $92.40, with final support found at $88.77.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $117. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $97. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $16.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $43. Earnings during that time period averaged $5.07 per share and the average PE Ratio was 16. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 13.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 189.11 shares of stock with a cost basis of $52.88 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $92.70 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $8.59 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $17,539, a gain of 75%.

Diamondback Energy, Inc. (Nasdaq: FANG) – FYE 12/2018 – OVER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $26 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/10/19

A Quickie With Continental Resources

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Continental Resources is an independent crude oil and natural gas exploration and production company with properties in the North, South and East regions of the United States. The North region consists of properties north of Kansas and west of the Mississippi River and includes North Dakota Bakken, Montana Bakken, and the Red River units. The South region includes Kansas and all properties south of Kansas and west of the Mississippi River including various plays in the South Central Oklahoma Oil Province (“SCOOP”), Northwest Cana, and Arkoma areas of Oklahoma. The East region is comprised of undeveloped leasehold acreage east of the Mississippi River. Industry peers include Chesapeake Energy, Abraxas Petroleum, and EOG Resources.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $52.53, with an initial trailing stop set at $46.30. With a recent price of $47, upward price movement will find resistance at $50.37, and again at $53.32, with final resistance found at $59.99. Downward price movement will find support at $45.97 and again at $44.62, with final support found at $42.39.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $121. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $59. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $139.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $47. Earnings during that time period averaged $5.84 per share and the average PE Ratio was 8. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 6.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 177.75 shares of stock with a cost basis of $56.26 per share. With a stock split in September 2014 your shares would have increased to 355.5 and your adjusted cost basis would have been $28.13 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $40.19 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $14,287, a gain of 43%.

Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE: CLR) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my $83 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/07/19

A Quickie With Contango Oil and Gas Company

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Contango Oil and Gas Company is an independent oil and natural gas company, engaged in the exploration, development, exploitation, production and acquisition of crude oil and natural gas properties in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico and in the onshore Texas Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountain regions of the United States. Listed competitors are BP plc, Newfield Exploration, and Linn Energy.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $4.43, with an initial trailing stop set at $3.28. With a recent price of $3.33, upward price movement will find resistance at $3.84, and again at $4.08, with final resistance found at $5.02. Downward price movement will find support at $3.09.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $8. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $0. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $11.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $44. Earnings during that time period averaged $3.73 per share and the average PE Ratio was 5. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 6.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 211.60 shares of stock with a cost basis of $47.26 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $3.25 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $688 for a loss of 93%.

Contango Oil and Gas Company (NYSE: MCF) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my $7 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/07/19

A Quickie With Phillips 66

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Phillips 66 operates in four operating segments. Midstream- Gathers, processes, transports and markets natural gas; and transports, fractionates and markets natural gas liquids (NGL) in the United States and transports refinery crude. Chemicals – Manufactures and markets petrochemicals and plastics on a worldwide basis. Refining – Buys, sells and refines crude oil and other feedstocks at 14 refineries. Marketing and Specialties – Purchases for resale and markets refined petroleum products. This segment includes the manufacturing and marketing of specialty products, as well as power generation operations. Listed competitors are Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Shell Oil Products US, and Valero Energy Corporation.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $107.06, with an initial trailing stop set at $96.32. With a recent price of $97.79, upward price movement will find resistance at $102.80, and again at $109.12, with final resistance found at $113.00. Downward price movement will find support at $94.86 and again at $92.60, leaving support at $89.14.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $239. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $149. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $192.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $76. Earnings during that time period averaged $9.19 per share and the average PE Ratio was 9. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 6.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 129.65 shares of stock with a cost basis of $77.13 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $101.15 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $326.37 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $13,441 for a gain of 34%.

Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my $115 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/07/19

A Quickie With ConocoPhillips

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
ConocoPhillips is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company, exploring for, producing, transporting and marketing, crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, LNG and natural gas liquids. The company was formed via a merger between Conoco Inc. and Phillips Petroleum Company and has now separated its downstream business into an independent, publicly traded energy company, Phillips 66 (PSX). Listed competitors include Exxon Mobil Corporation, Royal Dutch Shell,
and BP plc.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $73.50, with an initial trailing stop set at $65.13. With a recent price of $66.12, upward price movement will find resistance at $66.86, and again at $68.19, with final resistance found at $70.17. Downward price movement will find support at $63.98 and again at $61.82.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $171. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $69. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $152.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $71. Earnings during that time period averaged $9.58 per share and the average PE Ratio was 6. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 6.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 141.54 shares of stock with a cost basis of $70.65 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $62.35 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $258.78 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $9,084 for a loss of 9%.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my $91 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/07/19

A Quickie With Callon Petroleum Company

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Callon Petroleum is an independent oil and natural gas company focused on the acquisition and development of unconventional onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin located in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Industry peers include Apache Corporation, Carrizo Oil and Gas, Inc., and SM Energy Company.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $9.23, with an initial trailing stop set at $7.61. With a recent price of $7.73, upward price movement will find resistance at $8.04, and again at $8.39, with final resistance found at $8.89. Downward price movement will find support at $7.28 and again at $7.03, and leave support at $6.49.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $32. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $30. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $23.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $14. Earnings during that time period averaged $0.76 per share and the average PE Ratio was 13. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 4.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 1531.39 shares of stock with a cost basis of $6.53 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $6.49 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $9,939 for a loss of 1%.

Callon Petroleum Company (NYSE: CPE) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my $14 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/06/19

A Quickie With Apache Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Apache Corporation is an independent energy company that explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids. Industry peers include Anadarko Petroleum Corporation, BP plc, and Exxon Mobil Corporation.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $38.60, with an initial trailing stop set at $32.87. With a recent price of $33.37, upward price movement will find resistance at $35.67, and again at $37.34, with final resistance found at $42.91. Downward price movement will find support at $31.29 and again at $30.12, and leave support at $26.94.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $122. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $(1). Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $103.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $90. Earnings during that time period averaged $12.91 per share and the average PE Ratio was 5. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 4.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 116.36 shares of stock with a cost basis of $85.94 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $26.25 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $116.07 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $3,171 for a loss of 68%.

Apache Corporation (NYSE: APA) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my $62 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/05/19

A Quickie With Anadarko Petroleum Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Anadarko Petroleum is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company, developing, acquiring, and exploring for oil and natural-gas resources in the Rocky Mountains, the southern United States, the Appalachian basin, and Alaska. The company is also a producer in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. Listed competitors are BP plc, Conoco Phillips, and Exxon Mobile Corporation.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $54.82, with an initial trailing stop set at $43.80. With a recent price of $44.47, upward price movement will find resistance at $45.71, and again at $48.39, with final resistance found at $52.08. Downward price movement will find support at $42.29.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $200. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $179. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $141.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $66. Earnings during that time period averaged $9.52 per share and the average PE Ratio was 7. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 4.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 126.07 shares of stock with a cost basis of $79.32 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $43.84 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $89.43 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $5,616 a loss of 44%.

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my $84 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 04/04/19

A Quickie With The WR Grace and Company

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
WR Grace and Company is engaged in the production and sale of catalysts and related products and technologies used in refining, petrochemical and other chemical manufacturing applications, and silica-based and silica-alumina-based materials used in coatings, consumer, industrial, and pharmaceutical applications. Industry peers include Albemarle Corporation, BASF Catalysts LLC, and Evonik Degussa GmbH.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $78.22, with an initial trailing stop set at $76.87. With a recent price of $78.04, upward price movement will find no resistance. Downward price movement will find support at $75.46 and again at $73.02, leaving support at $71.01.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $91. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $122. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $47.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $33. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.73 per share and the average PE Ratio was 32. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 22.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 101.04 shares of stock with a cost basis of $98.97 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $64.91 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $47.45 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $6,6006 a loss of 34%.

W.R. Grace and Company, Inc. (NYSE: GRA) – FYE 12/2018 – OVER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $75 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/31/19

A Quickie With The Sherwin-Williams Company

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
The Sherwin-Williams Company is engaged in the development, manufacture, distribution and sale of paint, coatings and related products to professional, industrial, commercial and retail customers in North and South America, the Caribbean region, Europe and Asia. Industry peers include PPG Industries, Inc., The Valspar Corporation, Akzo Nobel N.V.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $453.45, with an initial trailing stop set at $424.25. With a recent price of $430.71, upward price movement will find resistance at $438.01, and again at $456.24, with final resistance found at $472.37. Downward price movement will find support at $420.30 and again at $411.59, leaving support at $400.65.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $293. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $426. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $245.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $75. Earnings during that time period averaged $12.36 per share and the average PE Ratio was 22. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 23.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 54.50 shares of stock with a cost basis of $183.50 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $393.46 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $165.59 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $21,608, a 116% gain.

The Sherwin-Williams Company, Inc. (NYSE: SHW) – FYE 12/2018 – OVER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $392 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/30/19

A Quickie With Sensient Technologies

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Sensient Technologies is a developer, manufacturer and supplier of flavor and fragrance systems for the food, beverage, personal care and household-products industries. The company’s flavor formulations are used in consumer products. Additionally the company is a supplier to multinational companies through its Sensient Flavors, Sensient Natural Ingredients and Sensient Fragrances brands. Industry peers include International Flavors and Fragrances, McCormick and Company, and DD Williamson and Company.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $70.35, with an initial trailing stop set at $66.63. With a recent price of $67.64, upward price movement will find resistance at $70.91, and again at $72.14, with final resistance found at $74.79. Downward price movement will find support at $66.68 and again at $64.43, leaving support at $62.11.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $68. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $84. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $64.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $47. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.22 per share and the average PE Ratio was 29. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 18.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 206.10 shares of stock with a cost basis of $48.52 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $55.85 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $239.38 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $11,750, an 18% gain.

Sensient Technologies Corporation (NYSE: SXT) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $39 initiate target, but below my most recent $81 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/29/19

A Quickie With Quaker Chemical Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Quaker Chemical develops, produces, and markets rolling lubricants (used in the hot and cold rolling of steel and aluminum), corrosion preventives (used to protect metal during manufacture, storage, and shipment), metal finishing compounds (used to prepare metal surfaces for special treatments), machining and grinding compounds (used in cutting, shaping, and grinding metal parts), forming compounds (used to facilitate the drawing and extrusion of metal products), bio-lubricants (used in machinery of the forestry and construction industries), hydraulic fluids (used to operate hydraulically activated equipment), chemical milling maskants for the aerospace industry, temporary and permanent coatings for metal and concrete products, construction products, such as flexible sealants and protective coatings, specialty greases, and die casting lubricants. Listed competitors are FUCHS PETROLUB SE, Houghton International, and The Lubrizol Corporation.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $208.32, with an initial trailing stop set at $198.25. With a recent price of $201.27, upward price movement will find resistance at $204.74, and again at $212.70. Downward price movement will find support at $195.16 and again at $189.77, leaving support at $182.26.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $99. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $210. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $95.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $67. Earnings during that time period averaged $4.02 per share and the average PE Ratio was 26. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 35.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 129.75 shares of stock with a cost basis of $77.07 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $177.71 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $169.16 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $23,227 for an overall return of 132%.

Quaker Chemical Corporation (NYSE: KWR) – FYE 12/2018 – OVER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my $151 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/28/19

A Quickie With Olin Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder. What I can also tell you is that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Olin Corporation operates in three divisions, Chlor Alkali Products, Chemical Distribution and Winchester Products. Chlor Alkali Products manufactures and sells chlorine and caustic soda, hydrochloric acid, hydrogen, bleach products and potassium hydroxide. Chemical Distribution manufactures bleach products and distributes caustic soda, bleach products, potassium hydroxide and hydrochloric acid. Winchester products include sporting ammunition, reloading components, small caliber military ammunition and components, and industrial cartridges. Industry peers include PolyOne Corporation, NL Industries, and Huntsman Corporation.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $26.58, with an initial trailing stop set at $22.90. With a recent price of $23.25, upward price movement will find resistance at $24.10, and again at $25.18, with final resistance found at $26.07. Downward price movement will find support at $22.50 and again at $21.55, leaving support at $20.87.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $30. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $17. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $49.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $29. Earnings during that time period averaged $1.80 per share and the average PE Ratio was 14.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 346.42 shares of stock with a cost basis of $28.85 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $20.11 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $256.52 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $7,227 for an overall return of (28)%.

Olin Corporation (NYSE: OLN) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my $29 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/27/19

A Quickie With Kraton Performance Polymers

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am not a shareholder. What I can tell you about me is that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Kraton Performance Polymers is a producer of styrenic block copolymers (“SBCs”) and other engineered polymers. SBCs are highly-engineered synthetic elastomers, invented and commercialized by the company in 1964. SBCs enhance the performance of numerous products by imparting greater flexibility, resilience, strength, durability and processability. The company’s polymers are typically formulated or compounded with other products to achieve improved, customer-specific performance characteristics in a variety of applications. Listed competitors are LG Chemicals Ltd., Kuraray Company Ltd., and Kumho Petrochemical Company Ltd.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $36.36, with an initial trailing stop set at $30.42. With a recent price of $30.89, upward price movement will find resistance at $32.88, and again at $35.75, with final resistance found at $38.12. Downward price movement will find support at $28.20 and again at $26.94, leaving support at $25.38.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $138. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $39. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $132.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $40. Earnings during that time period averaged $4.25 per share and the average PE Ratio was 6.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 433.84 shares of stock with a cost basis of $23.05. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $21.84 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $9,475 for an overall return of (5)%.

Kraton Performance Polymers, Inc. (NYSE: KRA) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my $79 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/25/19

A Quickie With The Mosaic Company

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am not a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
The Mosaic Company is a single source supplier of phosphate and potash based crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients, mining phosphate rock in Florida and processing minded rock into finished phosphate products at facilities in Florida and Louisiana. The company also mines potash in Saskatchewan and New Mexico. Listed competitors are Intrepid Potash, Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, and CF Industries.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $33.55, with an initial trailing stop set at $26.45. With a recent price of $26.85, upward price movement will find resistance at $28.05, and again at $28.66, with final resistance found at $29.57. Downward price movement will find NO support.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $(9). Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $38. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $36.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $40. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.18 per share and the average PE Ratio was 16.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 211.55 shares of stock with a cost basis of $47.27. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed your position at $29.21 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $144.70 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $6,324 for an overall return of (37)%.

The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $22 initiate target, but below my most recent $36 baseline value estimate. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/25/19

A Quickie With CF Industries Holdings

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am not a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
FMC Corporation is a chemical company serving agricultural, consumer and industrial markets, operating in three business segments. The FMC Agricultural Solutions segment develops, markets and sells all three major classes of crop protection chemicals – insecticides, herbicides and fungicides. The FMC Health and Nutrition segment focuses on food, pharmaceutical ingredients, nutraceuticals, personal care and similar markets. The FMC Minerals segment manufactures a wide range of inorganic materials, including soda ash and lithium. Industry peers include Asahi Glass Company Ltd., and The Dow Chemical Company.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $47.51, with an initial trailing stop set at $38.42. With a recent price of $39.01, upward price movement will find resistance at $41.12, and again at $42.70, with final resistance found at $44.84. Downward price movement will find NO support.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $15. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $38. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $45.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $32. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.66 per share and the average PE Ratio was 16.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 214.55 shares of stock with a cost basis of $46.61. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $43.51 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $254.72 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $9,590 for an overall return of (4)%.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: FMC) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $27 initiate target, but below my most recent $45 baseline value estimate. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/24/19

A Quickie With FMC Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am not a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
FMC Corporation is a chemical company serving agricultural, consumer and industrial markets, operating in three business segments. The FMC Agricultural Solutions segment develops, markets and sells all three major classes of crop protection chemicals – insecticides, herbicides and fungicides. The FMC Health and Nutrition segment focuses on food, pharmaceutical ingredients, nutraceuticals, personal care and similar markets. The FMC Minerals segment manufactures a wide range of inorganic materials, including soda ash and lithium. Industry peers include Asahi Glass Company Ltd., and The Dow Chemical Company.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $79.58, with an initial trailing stop set at $73.86. With a recent price of $74.98, upward price movement will find resistance at $77.05, and again at $79.09. Downward price movement will find support at $73.68, and again at $72.15, leaving support at $70.59.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $70. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $81. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $74.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $43. Earnings during that time period averaged $3.68 per share and the average PE Ratio was 17.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 132.52 shares of stock with a cost basis of $75.46. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $64.15 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $85.72 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $8,587 for an overall return of (14)%.

FMC Corporation (NYSE: FMC) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $44 initiate target, but below my most recent $74 baseline value estimate. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/23/19

A Quickie With Steel Dynamics

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am not a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Steel Dynamics is a domestic manufacturer of steel products and a metals recycler. Industry peers include Nucor Corporation, United States Steel Corporation, and AK Steel Holding Corporation.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $41.18, with an initial trailing stop set at $35.26. With a recent price of $35.80, upward price movement will find resistance at $36.85, and again at $37.81, with final resistance coming at $38.82. Downward price movement will find support at $34.99, and again at $33.19.00, leaving support at $31.79.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $93. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $89. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $91.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $41. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.22 per share and the average PE Ratio was 12.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 511.77 shares of stock with a cost basis of $19.54. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $30.04 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $296.18 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $15,670 for an overall return of 57%.

Steel Dynamics, Inc. (Nasdaq: STLD) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels below my $55 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/22/19

A Quickie With Gibraltar Industries, Inc.

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am not a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Gibraltar Industries is a manufacturer and distributor of roof and foundation ventilation products, mail and package storage products, rain dispersion products and roof ventilation accessories, fabricated bar grating for industrial flooring, expanded and perforated metal, plus expansion joints and structural bearings for roadways and bridges. Industry peers include American Buildings Company, Simpson Manufacturing, and Commercial Metals.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $41.54, with an initial trailing stop set at $39.46. With a recent price of $40.06, upward price movement will find resistance at $42.13, and again at $44.91, with final resistance coming at $46.08. Downward price movement will find support at $37.67, and again at $36.00, leaving support at $35.00.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $31. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $41. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $45.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $32. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.09 per share and the average PE Ratio was 19.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 537.92 shares of stock with a cost basis of $18.59. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $35.59 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $19,145 for an overall return of 91%.

Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (Nasdaq: ROCK) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $27 initiate target, but below my most recent $45 baseline value estimate. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/20/19

A Quickie With AK Steel Holding Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am not a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
AK Steel consists of eight steel making and finishing plants, two coke plants and two tube manufacturing plants across six states producing flat-rolled value-added carbon steels, including premium-quality coated, cold-rolled and hot-rolled carbon steel products, and specialty stainless and electrical steels that are sold in sheet and strip form, as well as carbon and stainless steel that is finished into welded steel tubing. Listed competitors include Steel Dynamics, United States Steel, Nucor Corporation.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $3.59, with an initial trailing stop set at $2.66. With a recent price of $2.70, upward price movement will find resistance at $2.95, and again at $3.19, with final resistance coming at $3.67. Downward price movement will find support at $2.59, and again at $2.26.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $18. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $11. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $27.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $13. Earnings during that time period averaged $0.76 per share and the average PE Ratio was 8.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 1,291.51 shares of stock with a cost basis of $8.20. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $2.25 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $2,744 or (15)% per year.

AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE: AKS) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels below my $16 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/20/19

A Quickie With Clevaland-Cliffs, Inc.

Cautionary Note
I normally have no reservations once I have completed my valuation of a company, but this one was different. I valued the company year-over-year starting with FYE 2007. As always, the financial data that I use is take directly from a company’s 10-K filing as obtained from the SEC website. The reason I say use caution with this stock, is because during my valuation process, the financial data kept changing.

For example, FYE 2017 10-K total sales were listed as $2330.4 million. But on the FYE 2018 10-K prior year total sales were listed as $1866.0 million. While there was a FYE 2017 10-K/A filing, the amendment had to do with the company’s request for Confidential Treatment of specific Exhibits it did not include with its 10-K, not changes to its financial statements.

The other thing to be aware of, is that for FYE 2014 through FYE 2018 much of the company’s income, in some cases all of the company’s income, was the result of income tax benefits, not from its business operations. So please take your time. Be relentless in you research should you decide this company may benefit your portfolio. Valuations are one thing, your hard earned dollars are another.

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am not a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Cleveland-Cliffs is an independent iron ore mining company, supplying iron ore pellets to the North American steel industry from mines and pellet plants located in Michigan and Minnesota. Industry peers include BHP Group Ltd., ArcelorMittal, and Rio Tinto Ltd.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $10.79, with an initial trailing stop set at $9.81. With a recent price of $9.96, upward price movement will find resistance at $10.24, and again at $10.78, with final resistance coming at $11.20. Downward price movement will find support at $9.31, and again at $9.02, leaving support at $8.67.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $70. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $182. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $55.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $10. Earnings during that time period averaged $(8.91) per share and the average PE Ratio was (1).

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 381.53 shares of stock with a cost basis of $26.61. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/18), you would have closed at $7.27 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $45.78 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $2,820 or (14)% per year.

Clevaland-Cliffs, Inc. (NYSE: CLF) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels below my $33 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/19/19

A Quickie With Superior Energy Services

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Superior Energy rents and sells specialized equipment and tools for use with well drilling, completion, production and workover activities. The company also provides pressure pumping, fluid handling and well servicing rigs as well as providing services which enhance, maintain and extend oil and gas production during the life of the well. Industry peers include Baker Hughes, Parker Drilling, and Schlumberger Ltd.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $5.77, with an initial trailing stop set at $4.33. With a recent price of $4.40, upward price movement will find resistance at $4.80, and again at $5.11, with final resistance coming at $6.37. Downward price movement will find support at $3.91, and again at $3.15.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $27. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $14. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $40.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $46. Earnings during that time period averaged $4.42 per share and the average PE Ratio was 4.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 375.80 shares of stock with a cost basis of $26.61. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/18), you would have closed at $3.35 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $54.87 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $1,314 or (17)% per year.

Superior Energy Services, Inc. (NYSE: SPN) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels below my $24 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/13/19

A Quickie With Koppers Holdings

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Koppers Holdings is an integrated provider of treated wood products, wood treatment chemicals, and carbon compounds. The company’s products and services are used in a variety of niche applications in a diverse range of end-markets, including the railroad, specialty chemical, utility, residential lumber, agriculture, aluminum, steel, rubber, and construction industries. Industry peers include Kmg Chemicals, Inc., Velsicol Chemical LLC, and Mitsubishi Chemical Corporation.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $26.38, with an initial trailing stop set at $25.90. With a recent price of $26.29, upward price movement will find resistance at $28.27, again at $30.23, with final resistance coming at $31.67. Downward price movement will find support at $25.05, again at $22.81, leaving support at $21.24.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $56. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $10. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $55.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $35. Earnings during that time period averaged $4.00 per share and the average PE Ratio was 9.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 218.58 shares of stock with a cost basis of $45.75. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/18), you would have closed at $17.04 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $62.08 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $3,787 or (12)% per year.

Koppers Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: KOP) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels below my $33 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/12/19

A Quickie With Cambrex Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Cambrex is a life sciences company that provides products and services that accelerate and improve the development and commercialization of new and generic therapeutics, supplying its products and services to innovator and generic pharmaceutical companies. Industry peers include Aceto Corporation, Sigma-Aldrich Corporation, and Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $49.14, with an initial trailing stop set at $37.91. With a recent price of $38.49, upward price movement will find resistance at $41.24 and again at $43.52, with final resistance coming at $47.79. Downward price movement will find support at $36.17.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $37. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $36. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $45.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $43. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.18 per share and the average PE Ratio was 17.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 560.85 shares of stock with a cost basis of $17.83. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/18), you would have closed at $37.76 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $21,178 or 22% per year.

Cambrex Corporation (NYSE: CBM) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $27 initiate target, but below my most recent $45 baseline value estimate. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/11/19

A Quickie With Matson, Inc.

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Matson, Inc., is holding company that provides ocean transportation and logistics. The company’s Hawaii service provides ocean freight services (lift-on/lift-off, roll-on/roll-off and conventional services) between the ports of Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, and the major ports in Hawaii. Westbound cargo carried by the company to Hawaii includes dry containers of mixed commodities, refrigerated commodities, packaged foods, building materials, automobiles and household goods. Eastbound cargo carried by the company from Hawaii includes automobiles, household goods, dry containers of mixed commodities, food and beverages, and livestock. Industry peers include Crowley Maritime Corporation, Hub Group, Inc., The Pasha Group.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $37.90, with an initial trailing stop set at $34.61. With a recent price of $35.14, upward price movement will find resistance at $36.10 and again at $37.49, with final resistance coming at $38.54. Downward price movement will find support at $33.54 and again at $32.86, and leave support at $32.18.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $77. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $124. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $(4).

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $33. Earnings during that time period averaged $1.33 per share.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 383 shares of stock with a cost basis of $26.11. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/18), you would have closed at $32.02 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $286.22 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $12,550 or 5% per year.

Matson, Inc. (NYSE: MATX) – FYE 12/2018 – OVER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $(7) terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/10/19

A Quickie With Encana Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am not a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

What They Do
Encana Corporation is engaged in the exploration, development, and production and marketing of natural gas, oil and natural gas liquids. Industry peers include Apache Corporation, Chesapeake Energy Corporation, and Repsol Oil and Gas Canada, Inc.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $8.45, with an initial trailing stop set at $6.71. With a recent price of $6.81, upward price movement will find resistance at $7.28 and again at $7.75, with final resistance coming at $8.76. Downward price movement will find support at $6.15 and again at $5.65.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $50. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $180. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $44.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $37. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.47 per share.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 554.02 shares of stock with a cost basis of $18.05. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it (12/18), you would have sold for $5.78 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $68.51 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $3,271 or (13)% per year.

Encana Corporation (NYSE: ECA) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels below my $26 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/08/19

A Quickie With ExxonMobil Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

What They Do
The principal business of Exxon Mobil Corporation is energy, involving exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas, manufacture of petroleum products and transportation and sale of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products. The company is also a manufacturer and marketer of commodity petrochemicals, including olefins, aromatics, polyethylene and polypropylene plastics and a wide variety of specialty products. Industry peers include BP plc, Chevron Corporation, and Royal Dutch Shell.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $82.58, with an initial trailing stop set at $78.09. With a recent price of $79.28, upward price movement will find resistance at $81.71 and again at $83.45, with final resistance coming at $86.38. Downward price movement will find support at $77.14, again at $75.32, and leave support at $71.85.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $125. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $83. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $136.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $80. Earnings during that time period averaged $9.77 per share.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 98.81 shares of stock with a cost basis of $101.20. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it (12/18), you would have sold for $68.19 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $296.41 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $7,035 or (6)% per year.

ExxonMobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels below my $81 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/07/19

A Quickie With Wabash National Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

What They Do
Wabash National Corporation is an industrial manufacturer of semi-trailers and liquid transportation systems. The company designs, manufactures, and markets dry freight and refrigerated trailers, platform trailers, bulk tank trailers, dry and refrigerated truck bodies, truck-mounted tanks, intermodal equipment, aircraft refueling equipment, structural composite panels and products, trailer aerodynamic solutions, specialty food grade and pharmaceutical equipment.
Listed competitors include Great Dane Limited Partnership, Trinity Industries, and Utility Trailer Manufacturing Company.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $16.15, with an initial trailing stop set at $13.96. With a recent price of $14.17, upward price movement will find resistance at $14.80 and againa at $15.37, with final resistance coming at $15.93. Downward price movement will find support at $13.62, again at $13.16, and leave support at $12.50.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $24. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $10. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $32.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $33. Earnings during that time period averaged $1.92 per share.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 809.72 shares of stock with a cost basis of $12.35. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it (12/18), you would have sold for $13.08 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $95.90 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $10,687 or 1% per year.

Wabash National Corporation (NYSE: WNC) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels below my $19 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/06/19

A Quickie With Kinder Morgan

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

What They Do
Kinder Morgan is an energy infrastructure company that owns an interest in, and/or operates, 84,000 miles of pipelines that transport natural gas, refined petroleum products, crude oil, condensate, CO2 and other products and 180 terminals that transload and store petroleum products, ethanol and chemicals, and handle such products as coal, petroleum coke and steel. The company also produces and transports CO2, which is utilized for enhanced oil recovery projects in North America. Listed competitors include Williams Companies, Enterprise Products Partners LP, and American Midstream Partners LP.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $19.30, with an initial trailing stop set at $19.55. With a recent price of $19.85, upward price movement will find no resistance, while downward price movement will find support at $19.26, again at $18.09, and leave support at $17.70.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $23. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $28. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $31.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $26. Earnings during that time period averaged $1.47 per share.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 277.78 shares of stock with a cost basis of $36. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it (12/18), you would have sold for $15.38 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $246.93 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $4,519 or (11)% per year.

Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE: KMI) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $19 initiate target, but below my most recent $31 baseline value estimate. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/05/19

A Quickie With McDermott International

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

What They Do
McDermott International provides integrated engineering, procurement, construction and installation (“EPCI”) and module fabrication services for upstream oil and gas field development worldwide. The company delivers fixed and floating production facilities, pipeline installations and subsea systems from concept to commissioning for complex offshore and subsea oil and gas projects. Industry peers include Superior Energy Services, Gulf Island Fabrication, and Oceaneering International.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $10.86, with an initial trailing stop set at $8.97. With a recent price of $9.11, upward price movement will find resistance at $9.86 and again at $13.07, with breakout resistance coming at $15.96. Downward price movement will find support at $8.58, again at $7.68, and leave support at $7.09.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $(6). Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $(12). Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $5.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $11. Earnings during that time period averaged $(0.07) per share.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 1091.70 shares of stock with a cost basis of $9.16. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it (12/18), you would have sold for $6.54 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $7,140 or (6)% per year.

McDermott International, Inc. (NYSE: MDR) – FYE 12/2018 – OVER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $8 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/04/19

A Quickie With General Electric Company

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

What They Do
General Electric Company is a digital industrial company working with industry to create purposeful software-defined machines and solutions that are connected, responsive and predictive. The company produces products that serve the aircraft industry, the power industry, the oil and gas industry, the medical industry, and the financing and industrial products industries. Listed competitors are Citigroup, Koninklijke Philips NV, and Siemens Aktiengesellschaft.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $62.51, with an initial trailing stop set at $10.31. With a recent price of $10.27, upward price movement will find resistance at $10.64 and again at $12.23, with breakout resistance coming at $13.05. Downward price movement will find support at $9.76, again at $8.68, and leave support at $8.23.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $11. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $11. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $14.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $26. Earnings during that time period averaged $3 per share.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 356.76 shares of stock with a cost basis of $28.03. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it (12/18), you would have sold for $7.29 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $314.23 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $2,911 or (14)% per year.

General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $8 initiate target, but below my most recent $14 baseline value estimate. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/01/19

A Quickie With HollyFrontier Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am a shareholder.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

What They Do
HollyFrontier is an independent petroleum refiner that produces high-value refined products such as gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, specialty lubricant products, and specialty and modified asphalt. Listed competitors include Valero Energy Corporation, Exxon Mobil Corporation, and Western Refining.

Short-Term Target
My short-term target for the stock is $62.51, with an initial trailing stop set at $51.25. With a recent price of $52.03, upward price movement will find resistance at $53.14 and again at $55.45, with breakout resistance coming at $57.71. Downward price movement will find support at $51.08.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $132. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $112. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $136.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $56. Earnings during that time period averaged $5.12 per share.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/13), you would have received 201.25 shares of stock with a cost basis of $49.69. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then sold it (12/18), you would have sold for $51.12 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $351.28 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $10,639 or 1% per year.

HollyFrontier Corporation (NYSE: HFC) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED The stock is currently trading at levels below my $82 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, as promised, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/01/19