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A Quickie With Brunswick Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I know very little about this company. I can tell you that I am not a shareholder and I can also tell you that I am a value investor focusing on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Brunswick Corporation is a designer, manufacturer, and marketer of recreation products including outboard, sterndrive, and inboard engines; trolling motors; propellers; engine control systems; and marine parts and accessories, fiberglass pleasure, sport cruiser, sport fishing and center-console, offshore fishing, aluminum and fiberglass fishing, pontoon, utility, deck, inflatable, and heavy-gauge aluminum boats, fitness products include cardiovascular and strength training equipment for both the commercial and consumer markets, and billiards tables, and other game room tables and accessories. Industry peers include Johnson Outdoors, Inc., Mastercraft Boat Holdings, Inc., and Nautilus, Inc.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $53.50, with an initial trailing stop set at $44.32. With a recent price of $44.9, upward price movement will find resistance at $47.24 and again at $49.27, with final resistance found at $51.24. Downward price movement will find support at $43.64 and again at $41.73.

Quality of Earnings
A company’s earnings can be impacted by sources unrelated to the company’s day to day operations. These unrelated sources will distort a company’s earnings and consequently its fair value. Investors should always explore the sources of a company’s earnings to better understand potential valuation impacts. Considering the company’s earnings, 0% came from tax benefits while 0% came from sources unrelated to day to day operations.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $73. Momentum targets are determined by integrating a company’s most recent annual EPS and year-over-year earnings growth, with the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $49. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 217.11 shares of stock with a cost basis of $46.06 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/2018), you would have closed at $46.45 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $123.28 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $10,208 a gain of 2%.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge.

Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 97 insider trades involving 259,523 shares of stock. Of those 97 insider trades, 76 were Buys involving 223,226 shares of stock, and 21 were Sells involving 36,297 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of roughly 6 to 1.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $55. The stock price during that time period averaged $51.52, earnings averaged $4.50 per share, and the average PE Ratio was 11. The current PE Ratio is 11.

Cost of Common Equity
The cost of common equity is the minimum annual rate of return an investor should expect to earn when investing in shares of a particular company. I calculate this by adding the thirty-year treasury yield to the beta ratio for the stock multiplied my default equity risk premium. My cost of common equity for this stock is 7.43%.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. My fair value estimate for the stock is $65.

Brunswick Corporation (NYSE: BC) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $39 initiate target, but below my most recent $81 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 06/18/19

A Quickie With Generac Holdings

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I know very little about this company. I can tell you that I am not a shareholder and I can also tell you that I am a value investor focusing on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Generac Holdings is a designer and manufacturer of power generation equipment and other engine powered products for the residential, light commercial and industrial markets. Products include standby generators, portable and mobile generators, light towers which provide temporary lighting, and mobile heaters and pumps used in the oil and gas, and construction markets. Industry peers include Briggs and Stratton Power Products Group, LLC, Cummins Power Generation, Inc., and Doosan Corporation

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $59.94, with an initial trailing stop set at $63.78. With a recent price of $64.75, upward price movement will find no resistance. Downward price movement will find support at $62.85 and again at $59.46, with final support found at $56.99.

Quality of Earnings
A company’s earnings can be impacted by sources unrelated to the company’s day to day operations. These unrelated sources will distort a company’s earnings and consequently its fair value. Investors should always explore the sources of a company’s earnings to better understand potential valuation impacts. Considering the company’s earnings, 0% came from tax benefits while 0% came from sources unrelated to day to day operations.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $85. Momentum targets are determined by integrating a company’s most recent annual EPS and year-over-year earnings growth, with the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $76. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 176.55 shares of stock with a cost basis of $56.64 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/2018), you would have closed at $49.70 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $1.24 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $8,776, a loss of 12%.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge.

Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 102 insider trades involving 771,044 shares of stock. Of those 102 insider trades, 46 were Buys involving 296,565 shares of stock, and 56 were Sells involving 474,479 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of roughly 0.5 to 1.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $34. The stock price during that time period averaged $44.69, earnings averaged $2.83 per share, and the average PE Ratio was 16. The current PE Ratio is 15.

Cost of Common Equity
The cost of common equity is the minimum annual rate of return an investor should expect to earn when investing in shares of a particular company. I calculate this by adding the thirty-year treasury yield to the beta ratio for the stock multiplied my default equity risk premium. My cost of common equity for this stock is 5.63%.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. My fair value estimate for the stock is $66.

Generac Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: GNRC) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $40 initiate target, but below my most recent $83 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 06/17/19

A Quickie With Knoll, Inc.

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I know very little about this company. I can tell you that I am not a shareholder and I can also tell you that I am a value investor focusing on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Knoll is a manufacturer of commercial and residential furniture, accessories and coverings focusing on “to-the-trade” specifier markets, commercial and residential. Industry peers include Herman Miller, Steelcase, HNI.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $21.94, with an initial trailing stop set at $21.37. With a recent price of $21.70, upward price movement will find no resistance. Downward price movement will find support at $21.30 and again at $20.79, with final support found at $20.37.

Quality of Earnings
A company’s earnings can be impacted by sources unrelated to the company’s day to day operations. These unrelated sources will distort a company’s earnings and consequently its fair value. Investors should always explore the sources of a company’s earnings to better understand potential valuation impacts. Considering the company’s earnings, 100% came from tax benefits while 13% came from sources unrelated to day to day operations.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $59. Momentum targets are determined by integrating a company’s most recent annual EPS and year-over-year earnings growth, with the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $20. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 546.15 shares of stock with a cost basis of $18.31 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/2018), you would have closed at $16.48 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $288.64 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $9,289, a loss of 7%.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge.

Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 51 insider trades involving 343,992 shares of stock. Of those 51 insider trades, 30 were Buys involving 208,745 shares of stock, and 21 were Sells involving 135,177 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of roughly 2 to 1.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $22. Earnings during that time period averaged $1.38 per share and the average PE Ratio was 16. The current PE Ratio is 15.

Cost of Common Equity
The cost of common equity is the minimum annual rate of return an investor should expect to earn when investing in shares of a particular company. I calculate this by adding the thirty-year treasury yield to the beta ratio for the stock multiplied my default equity risk premium. My cost of common equity for this stock is 6.08%.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. My fair value estimate for the stock is $27.

Knoll, Inc. (NYSE: KNL) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $16 initiate target, but below my most recent $33 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 06/14/19

A Quickie With Newell Brands

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I know very little about this company. I can tell you that I am not a shareholder and I can also tell you that I am a value investor focusing on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Newell Rubbermaid is a marketer of consumer and commercial products marketed under a portfolio of brands, including Sharpie®, Paper Mate®, Parker®, Waterman®, Dymo®, Rubbermaid®, Contigo®, Levolor®, Goody®, Calphalon®, Irwin®, Lenox®, Rubbermaid Commercial Products®, Graco®, Aprica®, Baby Jogger®, Yankee Candle®, Crock-Pot®, FoodSaver®, Mr. Coffee®, Oster®, Coleman®, First Alert®, Rawlings®, Jostens®, K2®, Marker®, Marmot®, and Völkl®. Listed competitors include ACCO Brands, Avery Dennison, and Tupperware Brands.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $17.59, with an initial trailing stop set at $14.38. With a recent price of $14.60, upward price movement will find resistance at $15.40 and again at $17.15, with final resistance found at $18.54. Downward price movement will find support at $13.38.

Quality of Earnings
A company’s earnings can be impacted by sources unrelated to the company’s day to day operations. These unrelated sources will distort a company’s earnings and consequently its fair value. Investors should always explore the sources of a company’s earnings to better understand potential valuation impacts. Considering the company’s earnings, 100% came from tax benefits while 0% came from sources unrelated to day to day operations.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $59. Momentum targets are determined by integrating a company’s most recent annual EPS and year-over-year earnings growth, with the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $0. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 308.55 shares of stock with a cost basis of $32.41 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/2018), you would have closed at $18.59 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $249.18 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $5,985, a loss of 40%.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge.

Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 52 insider trades involving 491,982 shares of stock. Of those 52 insider trades, 42 were Buys involving 452,379 shares of stock, and 10 were Sells involving 39,603 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of roughly 11 to 1.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $29. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.41 per share and the average PE Ratio was 16. The current PE Ratio is 4.

Cost of Common Equity
The cost of common equity is the minimum annual rate of return an investor should expect to earn when investing in shares of a particular company. I calculate this by adding the thirty-year treasury yield to the beta ratio for the stock multiplied my default equity risk premium. My cost of common equity for this stock is 5.93%.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. My fair value estimate for the stock is $53.

Newell Brands, Inc. (NYSE: Nasdaq) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my most recent $32 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 06/12/19

A Quickie With United Technologies

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I know very little about this company. I can tell you that I am not a shareholder and I can also tell you that I am a value investor focusing on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
UTX provides products and services to the building systems and aerospace industries. Otis and UTC Climate, Controls and Security serve customers in the commercial, government, infrastructure and residential property sectors. UTC Climate, Controls and Security also serves industrial, transport refrigeration and food service equipment customers. Pratt and Whitney and UTC Aerospace Systems serve commercial and government customers in both the original equipment and aftermarket parts and services markets of the aerospace industry and also serves selected industrial markets. Listed competitors include General Electric, Honeywell International, and The Boeing Company.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $140.32, with an initial trailing stop set at $126.09. With a recent price of $128.01, upward price movement will find resistance at $132.57 and again at $136.28, with final resistance found at $141.89. Downward price movement will find support at $126.62 and again at $123.14, with final support found at $120.10.

Quality of Earnings
A company’s earnings can be impacted by sources unrelated to the company’s day to day operations. These unrelated sources will distort a company’s earnings and consequently its fair value. Investors should always explore the sources of a company’s earnings to better understand potential valuation impacts. Considering the company’s earnings, none came from tax benefits while 66% came from sources unrelated to day to day operations.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $62. Momentum targets are determined by integrating a company’s most recent annual EPS and year-over-year earnings growth, with the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $128. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 87.87 shares of stock with a cost basis of $113.80 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/2018), you would have closed at $106.48 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $220.53 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $9,577, a loss of 4%.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge.

Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 66 insider trades involving 862,141 shares of stock. Of those 66 insider trades, 29 were Buys involving 520,571 shares of stock, and 37 were Sells involving 341,570 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of roughly 2 to 1.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $49. Earnings during that time period averaged $5.21 per share and the average PE Ratio was 22. The current PE Ratio is 38.

Cost of Common Equity
The cost of common equity is the minimum annual rate of return an investor should expect to earn when investing in shares of a particular company. I calculate this by adding the thirty-year treasury yield to the beta ratio for the stock multiplied my default equity risk premium. My cost of common equity for this stock is 5.81%.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. My fair value estimate for the stock is $65.

United Technologies Corporation (NYSE: UTX) – FYE 12/2018 – OVER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $104 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 06/11/19

A Quickie With Danaher Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I know very little about this company. I can tell you that I am not a shareholder and I can also tell you that I am a value investor focusing on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Danaher Corporation provides products, software and services to measure and monitor physical parameters in industrial applications, helps protect water supply and facilitate environmental stewardship, provides research tools that scientists use to study the basic building blocks of life, and provides solutions that help protect food supply, improve packaging design and verify pharmaceutical dosages. Industry peers include General Electric, Honeywell International, and The Boeing Company.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $132.63, with an initial trailing stop set at $135.46. With a recent price of $137.52, upward price movement will find no resistance. Downward price movement will find support at $134.03 and again at $131.03, with final support found at $127.94.

Quality of Earnings
A company’s earnings can be impacted by sources unrelated to the company’s day to day operations. These unrelated sources will distort a company’s earnings and consequently its fair value. Investors should always explore the sources of a company’s earnings to better understand potential valuation impacts. Considering the company’s earnings, none came from tax benefits while 1% came from sources unrelated to day to day operations.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $68. Momentum targets are determined by integrating a company’s most recent annual EPS and year-over-year earnings growth, with the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $138. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 170.85 shares of stock with a cost basis of $58.53 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/2018), you would have closed at $103.12 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $88.07 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $17,706, a gain of 77%.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge.

Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 171 insider trades involving 3,477,953 shares of stock. Of those 171 insider trades, 62 were Buys involving 1,202,552 shares of stock, and 109 were Sells involving 2,275,401 shares of stock, creating an approximate insider buy to sell ratio of 1 to 1.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $42. Earnings during that time period averaged $3.73 per share and the average PE Ratio was 20. The current PE Ratio is 37.

Cost of Common Equity
The cost of common equity is the minimum annual rate of return an investor should expect to earn when investing in shares of a particular company. I calculate this by adding the thirty-year treasury yield to the beta ratio for the stock multiplied my default equity risk premium. My cost of common equity for this stock is 5.48%.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. My fair value estimate for the stock is $59.

Danaher Corporation (NYSE: DHR) – FYE 12/2018 – OVER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $94 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 06/10/19

A Quickie With 3M Company

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I know very little about this company. I can tell you that I am not a shareholder and I can also tell you that I am a value investor focusing on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
3M manufactures and markets tapes coated, non-woven and bonded abrasives, and adhesives, personal protection products, traffic safety and security products and commercial graphics systems, medical and surgical supplies, skin health and infection prevention products and drug delivery systems, optical films solutions for electronic displays, packaging and interconnection devices, as well as insulating and splicing solutions, sponges, scouring pads, cloths, consumer and office tapes. Listed competitors include Johnson and Johnson, Bostik SA, and Siga AG.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $205.76, with an initial trailing stop set at $164.11. With a recent price of $166.61, upward price movement will find resistance at $174.78 and again at $185.58, with final resistance found at $189.94. Downward price movement will find support at $160.40.

Quality of Earnings
A company’s earnings can be impacted by sources unrelated to the company’s day to day operations. These unrelated sources will distort a company’s earnings and consequently its fair value. Investors should always explore the sources of a company’s earnings to better understand potential valuation impacts. Considering the company’s earnings, 0% of earnings came from tax benefits and 7% came from sources unrelated to day to day operations.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $163. Momentum targets are determined by integrating a company’s most recent annual EPS and year-over-year earnings growth, with the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $176. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 71.30 shares of stock with a cost basis of $140.25 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/2018), you would have closed at $190.54 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $320.36 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $13,906, a gain of 39%.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge.

Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 355 insider trades involving 632,350 shares of stock. Of those 355 insider trades, 86 were Buys involving 406,416 shares of stock, and 269 were Sells involving 225,934 shares of stock, creating an approximate insider buy to sell ratio of 2 to 1.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $68. Earnings during that time period averaged $7.79 per share and the average PE Ratio was 22. The current PE Ratio is 19.

Cost of Common Equity
The cost of common equity is the minimum annual rate of return an investor should expect to earn when investing in shares of a particular company. I calculate this by adding the thirty-year treasury yield to the beta ratio for the stock multiplied my default equity risk premium. My cost of common equity for this stock is 5.72%.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. My fair value estimate for the stock is $118.

3M Company, Inc. (NYSE: MMM) – FYE 12/2018 – SELL HALF – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $118 baseline value estimate, but below my most recent $189 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 06/08/19

A Quickie With Alcoa, Inc.

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I know very little about this company. I can tell you that I am not a shareholder and I can also tell you that I am a value investor focusing on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Alcoa is engaged in the engineering and manufacturing of lightweight metals, including aluminum, titanium, and nickel. Industry peers include Century Aluminum, Kaiser Aluminum, and Aluminum Corporation of China.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $29.99, with an initial trailing stop set at $21.25. With a recent price of $21.57, upward price movement will find resistance at $24.52 and again at $26.39, with final resistance found at $27.69. There is no support for downward price movement.

Quality of Earnings
A company’s earnings can be impacted by sources unrelated to the company’s day to day operations. These unrelated sources will distort a company’s earnings and consequently its fair value. Investors should always explore the sources of a company’s earnings to better understand potential valuation impacts. Considering the company’s earnings, 0% of earnings came from tax benefits and 0% came from sources unrelated to day to day operations.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $154. Momentum targets are determined by integrating a company’s most recent annual EPS and year-over-year earnings growth, with the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $85. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 391.54 shares of stock (split adjusted) with a cost basis of $25.54 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/2018), you would have closed at $26.58 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $71.26 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $10,478, a gain of 5%.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge.

Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 48 insider trades involving 239,886 shares of stock. Of those 48 insider trades, 41 were Buys involving 206,887 shares of stock, and 7 were Sells involving 32,999 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 6 to 1.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $64. Earnings during that time period averaged $5.20 per share and the average PE Ratio was 7. The current PE Ratio is 3.

Cost of Common Equity
The cost of common equity is the minimum annual rate of return an investor should expect to earn when investing in shares of a particular company. I calculate this by adding the thirty-year treasury yield to the beta ratio for the stock multiplied my default equity risk premium. My cost of common equity for this stock is 6.83%.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. My fair value estimate for the stock is $155.

Alcoa, Inc. (NYSE: AA) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my most recent $93 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 06/07/19

A Quickie With Encore Wire

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I know very little about this company. I can tell you that I am not a shareholder and I can also tell you that I am a value investor focusing on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Encore Wire Corporation is a low-cost manufacturer of copper electrical building wire and cable and is a supplier of building wire for interior electrical wiring in commercial and industrial buildings, homes, apartments, and manufactured housing.
Industry peers include Belden, Cerro Wire, and Southwire Company.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $58.76, with an initial trailing stop set at $52.72. With a recent price of $53.52, upward price movement will find resistance at $54.37 and again at $55.35, with final resistance found at $57.65. Downward price movement will find support at $52.89 and again at $51.58, with final support found at $50.06.

Quality of Earnings
A company’s earnings can be impacted by sources unrelated to the company’s day to day operations. These unrelated sources will distort a company’s earnings and consequently its fair value. Investors should always explore the sources of a company’s earnings to better understand potential valuation impacts. Considering the company’s earnings, 0% of earnings came from tax benefits and 0% came from sources unrelated to day to day operations.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $68. Momentum targets are determined by integrating a company’s most recent annual EPS and year-over-year earnings growth, with the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $58. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 184.50 shares of stock with a cost basis of $54.20 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/2018), you would have closed at $50.18 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $14.76 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $9,273, a loss of 7%.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge.

Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 9 insider trades involving 70,500 shares of stock. Of those 9 insider trades, 8 were Buys involving 66,500 shares of stock, and 1 was a Sell involving 4,000 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 16 to 1.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $52. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.24 per share and the average PE Ratio was 20. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 14.

Cost of Common Equity
The cost of common equity is the minimum annual rate of return an investor should expect to earn when investing in shares of a particular company. I calculate this by adding the thirty-year treasury yield to the beta ratio for the stock multiplied my default equity risk premium. My cost of common equity for this stock is 6.23%.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. My fair value estimate for the stock is $68.

Encore Wire Corporation (Nasdaq: WIRE) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $41 initiate target, but below my most recent $85 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 06/06/19

A Quickie With Deckers Outdoor

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I know very little about this company. I can tell you that I am not a shareholder and I can also tell you that I am a value investor focusing on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Deckers Outdoor Corporation designs, markets and distributes footwear, apparel and accessories, developed for both everyday casual lifestyle use and high performance activities, marketing their products under five proprietary brands: UGG, Koolaburra, Hoka, Teva and Sanuk. Industry peers include Crocs, Inc., Rocky Brands, Inc., and Wolverine World Wide.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $152.62, with an initial trailing stop set at $151.91. With a recent price of $154.22, upward price movement will find resistance at $157.72. Downward price movement will find support at $146.12 and again at $142.23, with final support found at $134.86.

Quality of Earnings
A company’s earnings can be impacted by sources unrelated to the company’s day to day operations. These unrelated sources will distort a company’s earnings and consequently its fair value. Investors should always explore the sources of a company’s earnings to better understand potential valuation impacts. Considering the company’s earnings, 0% of earnings came from tax benefits and 0% came from sources unrelated to day to day operations.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $192. Momentum targets are determined by integrating a company’s most recent annual EPS and year-over-year earnings growth, with the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $207. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (03/31/14), you would have received 125.42 shares of stock with a cost basis of $79.73 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (03/31/2019), you would have closed at $146.99 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $18,436, a gain of 84%.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge.

Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 60 insider trades involving 108,586 shares of stock. Of those 60 insider trades, 47 were Buys involving 88,700 shares of stock, and 13 were Sells involving 19,886 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 4.5 to 1.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 is $52. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.47 per share and the average PE Ratio was 29. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 18.

Cost of Common Equity
The cost of common equity is the minimum annual rate of return an investor should expect to earn when investing in shares of a particular company. I calculate this by adding the thirty-year treasury yield to the beta ratio for the stock multiplied my default equity risk premium. My cost of common equity for this stock is 5.69%.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. My fair value estimate for the stock is $137.

Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE: DECK) – FYE 03/2019 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $82 initiate target, but below my most recent $172 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 06/04/19

A Quickie With Graham Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I know very little about this company. I can tell you that I am not a shareholder and I can also tell you that I am a value investor focusing on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Graham Corporation designs, manufactures and sells critical equipment for the energy, defense and chemical/petrochemical industries. Energy markets include oil refining, cogeneration, nuclear and alternative power. For the defense industry, the company’s equipment is used in nuclear propulsion power systems for the U.S. Navy. The company also designs and manufactures custom engineered ejectors, vacuum pumping systems, surface condensers and vacuum systems, and is a nuclear code accredited fabrication and specialty machining company, supplying the components used inside reactor vessels and outside containment vessels of nuclear power facilities. Industry peers include Alfa Laval AB, Gardner Denver, and Kemco Systems.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $24.33, with an initial trailing stop set at $20.10. With a recent price of $20.41, upward price movement will find resistance at $20.8, and again at $21.43, with final resistance found at $22.59. Downward price movement will find support at $19.66.

Quality of Earnings
A company’s earnings can be impacted by sources unrelated to the company’s day to day operations. These unrelated sources will distort a company’s earnings and consequently its fair value. Investors should always explore the sources of a company’s earnings to better understand potential valuation impacts. Considering the company’s earnings, 0% of earnings came from tax benefits and 15% came from sources unrelated to day to day operations.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $10. Momentum targets are determined by integrating a company’s most recent annual EPS and year-over-year earnings growth, with the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $21. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (03/31/14), you would have received 329.71 shares of stock with a cost basis of $30.33 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (03/31/2019), you would have closed at $19.63 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $83.09 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $6,555, a loss of 34%.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge.

Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 20 insider trades involving 52,151 shares of stock. Of those 20 insider trades, 12 were Buys involving 30,872 shares of stock, and 8 were Sells involving 21,279 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 1.5 to 1.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 is $35. Earnings during that time period averaged $0.85 per share and the average PE Ratio was 28. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 36.

Cost of Common Equity
The cost of common equity is the annual rate of return an investor should expect to earn when investing in shares of a particular company. I calculate this by adding the thirty-year treasury yield to the beta ratio for the stock multiplied my default equity risk premium. My cost of common equity for this stock is 5.84%.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. My fair value estimate for the stock is $19.

Graham Corporation (NYSE: GHM) – FYE 03/2019 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $12 initiate target, but below my most recent $24 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 06/03/19

A Quickie With Modine Manufaturing Company

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I know very little about this company. I can tell you that I am not a shareholder and I can also tell you that I am a value investor focusing on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Modine Manufacturing developers, manufacturers and markets heat exchangers and systems for use in on-highway and off-highway original equipment manufacturer vehicular applications, and to a wide array of building, industrial and refrigeration markets. Products include radiators and radiator cores, condensers, oil coolers, charge air coolers, heat-transfer modules and assemblies, exhaust gas recirculation coolers, and building heating, ventilating and air conditioning equipment. Industry peers include Dana Holding Corporation, Delphi Automotive Systems, and Denso Corporation.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $15.28, with an initial trailing stop set at $12.66. With a recent price of $12.85, upward price movement will find resistance at $13.62, and again at $14.28, with final resistance found at $15.33. Downward price movement will find support at $11.88 and again at $10.81, with final support found at $10.20.

Unrelated Income
Income unrelated to a company’s day to day operations, such as income tax benefits or income from other sources will distort a company’s earnings and consequently its fair value. Investors should always explore the sources of a company’s earnings to better understand potential valuation impacts. Considering the company’s earnings,0% of earnings came from tax benefits and 0% came from “other” sources.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $45. Momentum targets are determined by integrating a company’s most recent annual EPS and year-over-year earnings growth, with the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $52. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (03/31/14), you would have received 682.59 shares of stock with a cost basis of $14.65 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (03/31/2019), you would have closed at $13.87 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $9,468, a loss of 5%.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge.

Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 21 insider trades involving 152,941 shares of stock. Of those 21 insider trades, 14 were Buys involving 91,838 shares of stock, and 7 were Sells involving 61,103 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 1.5 to 1.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 is $16. Earnings during that time period averaged $0.37 per share and the average PE Ratio was 39. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 9.

Cost of Common Equity
The cost of common equity is the annual rate of return an investor should expect to earn when investing in shares of a particular company. I calculate this by adding the thirty-year treasury yield to the beta ratio for the stock multiplied my default equity risk premium. My cost of common equity for this stock is 7.67%.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. My fair value estimate for the stock is $41.

Modine Manufaturing Company, Inc. (NYSE: MOD) – FYE 03/2019 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my most recent $24 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 06/02/19

A Quickie With Plantronics, Inc.

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I know very little about this company. I can tell you that I am not a shareholder and I can also tell you that I am a value investor focusing on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Plantronics is a designer, manufacturer, and marketer of lightweight communications headsets, telephone headset systems, and accessories for the business and consumer markets. Industry peers include Motorola Solutions, Logitech international S.A, and Gn Netcom A/S.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $52.15, with an initial trailing stop set at $43.06. With a recent price of $43.72, upward price movement will find resistance at $48.13, and again at $52.19, with final resistance found at $57.68. Downward price movement will find support at $38.92 and again at $35.46, with final support found at $32.72.

Unrelated Income
Income unrelated to a company’s day to day operations, such as income tax benefits or income from other sources will distort a company’s earnings and consequently its fair value. Investors should always explore the sources of a company’s earnings to better understand potential valuation impacts. Considering the company’s earnings, 46% of earnings came from tax benefits and 6% came from “other” sources.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $(230). Momentum targets are determined by integrating a company’s most recent annual EPS and year-over-year earnings growth, with the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $351. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (03/31/14), you would have received 234.14 shares of stock with a cost basis of $42.71 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (03/31/2019), you would have closed at $46.11 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $143.71 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $10,940, a gain of 9%.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge.

Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 270 insider trades involving 277,044 shares of stock. Of those 270 insider trades, 113 were Buys involving 218,859 shares of stock, and 157 were Sells involving 58,185 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 3.8 to 1.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 is $47. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.02 per share and the average PE Ratio was 25. At this writing the current PE Ratio is (16).

Cost of Common Equity
The cost of common equity is the annual rate of return an investor should expect to earn when investing in shares of a particular company. I calculate this by adding the thirty-year treasury yield to the beta ratio for the stock multiplied my default equity risk premium. My cost of common equity for this stock is 6.71%.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. My fair value estimate for the stock is $15.

Plantronics, Inc. (NYSE: HWKN) – FYE 03/2019 – OVER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $24 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 05/31/19

A Quickie With Hawkins, Inc.

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I know very little about this company. I can tell you that I am not a shareholder and I can also tell you that I am a value investor focusing on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Hawkins, Inc. distributes, blends and manufactures chemicals. The company operates in two segments: Industrial and Water Treatment. The Industrial Group specializes in providing industrial chemicals, products and services to industries such as agriculture, chemical processing, electronics, energy, food, pharmaceutical, plating and power generation. The Water Treatment Group specializes in providing chemicals, equipment and solutions for potable water, municipal and industrial wastewater, industrial process water and non-residential swimming pool water. Listed competitors are Brenntag North America, Harcros Chemicals, and JCI Jones Chemicals.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $41.63, with an initial trailing stop set at $35.82. With a recent price of $36.37, upward price movement will find resistance at $36.83, and again at $37.57, with final resistance found at $35.86. Downward price movement will find support at $33.96.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $36. Momentum targets are determined by integrating a company’s most recent annual EPS and year-over-year earnings growth, with the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $34. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (03/31/14), you would have received 289.35 shares of stock with a cost basis of $34.56 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (03/31/2019), you would have closed at $36.83 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $250.41 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $10,907, a gain of 9%.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge.

Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 21 insider trades involving 46,629 shares of stock. Of those 21 insider trades, 14 were Buys involving 39,130 shares of stock, and 7 were Sells involving 7,499 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 5.2 to 1.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 is $43. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.03 per share and the average PE Ratio was 19. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 16.

Cost of Common Equity
The cost of common equity is the annual rate of return an investor should expect to earn when investing in shares of a particular company. I calculate this by adding the thirty-year treasury yield to the beta ratio for the stock multiplied my default equity risk premium. My cost of common equity for this stock is 5.39%.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. My fair value estimate for the stock is $51.

Hawkins, Inc. (Nasdaq: HWKN) – FYE 03/2019 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $31 initiate target, but below my most recent $64 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 05/30/19

A Quickie With Schlumberger Limited

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I know very little about this company. I can tell you that I am not a shareholder and I can also tell you that I am a value investor focusing on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Schlumberger is a provider of technology for reservoir characterization, drilling, production and processing to the oil and gas industry. Industry peers include General Electric/Baker Hughes, Halliburton, and Weatherford International.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $47.91, with an initial trailing stop set at $36.45. With a recent price of $37.00, upward price movement will find resistance at $38.76, and again at $40.94, with final resistance found at $40.94. Downward price movement will find support at $35.52.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $28. Momentum targets are determined by integrating a company’s most recent annual EPS and year-over-year earnings growth, with the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $38. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 110.98 shares of stock with a cost basis of $90.11 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $36.08 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $208.26 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $4,212, a loss of 58%.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 121 insider trades involving 2,700,818 shares of stock. Of those 121 insider trades, 71 were Buys involving 1,779,772 shares of stock, and 50 were Sells involving 921,046 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 1.9 to 1.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 is $54. Earnings during that time period averaged $3.57 per share and the average PE Ratio was 22. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 22.

Cost of Common Equity
The cost of common equity is the annual rate of return an investor should expect to earn when investing in shares of a particular company. I calculate this by adding the thirty-year treasury yield to the beta ratio for the stock multiplied my default equity risk premium. My cost of common equity for this stock is 6.32%.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. My fair value estimate for the stock is $41.

Schlumberger Limited (NYSE: SLB) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $24 initiate target, but below my most recent $51 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 05/28/19

A Quickie With Oil States International

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Oil States International is an oilfield services company and manufacturer of products for deepwater production facilities and subsea pipelines. The company is also a supplier of production-related rental tools, work force accommodations and logistics, oil country tubular goods distribution and land drilling services. Listed competitors include FMC Technologies, GE Oil and Gas, and Cameron International.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $20.80, with an initial trailing stop set at $16.62. With a recent price of $16.87, upward price movement will find resistance at $17.49, and again at $18.35, with final resistance found at $19.41. Downward price movement will find support at $16.16 and again at $15.10, with final support found at $14.08.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $50. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $76. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 98.31 shares of stock with a cost basis of $101.72 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $14.28 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $1,404, a loss of 86%.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 55 insider trades involving 693,970 shares of stock. Of those 55 insider trades, 23 were Buys involving 567,640 shares of stock, and 32 were Sells involving 126,330 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 4.5 to 1.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 is $56. Earnings during that time period averaged $3.24 per share and the average PE Ratio was 15. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 10.

Cost of Common Equity
The cost of common equity is the annual rate of return an investor expects to earn when investing in shares of a company. I calculate this value by adding the thirty-year treasury yield to the beta ratio for the stock multiplied my default equity risk premium. My cost of common equity for this stock is 8.24%.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. My fair value estimate for the stock is $40.

Oil States International, Inc. (NYSE: OIS) – FYE 12/2018 – UNDER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels below my most recent $24 initiate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 05/27/19

A Quickie With Oceaneering International

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Oceaneering International is a provider of engineered services and products, primarily to the offshore oil and gas industry, with a focus on deepwater applications. The services and products provided to the oil and gas industry include remotely operated vehicles, specialty subsea hardware, engineering and project management, subsea intervention services, including manned diving, and asset integrity and nondestructive testing services. The company also serves the defense, aerospace and commercial theme park industries.
Listed competitors include Technip, Ensco plc, and Sub Sea 7MS Ltd.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $19.13, with an initial trailing stop set at $16.54. With a recent price of $16.79, upward price movement will find resistance at $17.40, and again at $18.54, with final resistance found at $19.32. Downward price movement will find support at $15.39 and again at $14.42.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $(12). Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $1. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $10.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 is $43. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.46 per share and the average PE Ratio was 18. At this writing the current PE Ratio is (13).

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 36 insider trades involving 390,864 shares of stock. Of those 36 insider trades, 22 were Buys involving 334,227 shares of stock, and 14 were Sells involving 56,637 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 5.9 to 1.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 126.77 shares of stock with a cost basis of $78.88 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $12.10 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $91.28 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $1,625, a loss of 84%.

Oceaneering International (NYSE: OII) – FYE 12/2018 – OVER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $16 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 05/27/19

A Quickie With National-Oilwell Varco

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
National Oilwell Varco is a provider in the design, manufacture and sale of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling, completion and production operations, and the provision of oilfield services to the upstream oil and gas industry.
Listed competitors include Akastor ASA, Oil States International, and Dril-Quip.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $30.85, with an initial trailing stop set at $22.05. With a recent price of $22.39, upward price movement will find resistance at $24.92, and again at $26.01, with final resistance found at $27.28. Downward price movement will find no support

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $2. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $22. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $23.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 is $45. Earnings during that time period averaged $1.91 per share and the average PE Ratio was 26. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 121.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 51 insider trades involving 1,827,613 shares of stock. Of those 51 insider trades, 20 were Buys involving 1,046,759 shares of stock, and 31 were Sells involving 780,854 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 1.3 to 1.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 139.45 shares of stock with a cost basis of $71.71 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $25.70 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $128.52 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $3,712, a loss of 63%.

National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NYSE: NOV) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $14 initiate target, but below my most recent $29 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 05/26/19

A Quickie With MRC Global

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
MRC Global is an industrial distributor of pipe, valves and fittings and related products to the energy industry. The company serves the upstream sector (exploration, production and extraction of underground oil and natural gas), the midstream sector (gathering and transmission of oil and natural gas, natural gas utilities and the storage and distribution of oil and natural gas) and the downstream sector (crude oil refining, petrochemical processing and general industrials). Listed competitors are Ferguson Enterprises, Wilson International, and W.W. Grainger.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $18.35, with an initial trailing stop set at $15.29. With a recent price of $15.52, upward price movement will find resistance at $15.85, and again at $16.56, with final resistance found at $17.28. Downward price movement will find support at $14.63 and again at $12.25. levels.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $9. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $16. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $21.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 is $23. Earnings during that time period averaged $0.74 per share and the average PE Ratio was 26. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 30.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 77 insider trades involving 954,101 shares of stock. Of those 77 insider trades, 29 were Buys involving 642,505 shares of stock, and 48 were Sells involving 311,596 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 2.1 to 1.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 309.98 shares of stock with a cost basis of $32.26 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $12.23 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $3,791, a loss of 62%.

MRC Global, Inc. (NYSE: MRC) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $12 initiate target, but below my most recent $26 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 05/25/19

A Quickie With Halliburton Company

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Haliburton is a provider of services and products to the upstream oil and natural gas industry, from locating hydrocarbons and managing geological data, to drilling and formation evaluation, well construction and completion, and optimizing production throughout the life of the field. Listed competitors are Schlumberger NV, Baker Hughes, and Weatherford International PLC.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $32.60, with an initial trailing stop set at $25.56. With a recent price of $25.95, upward price movement will find resistance at $26.25, and again at $27.93, with final resistance found at $28.88. Downward price movement will find no current support levels.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $87. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $150. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $43.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 is $36. Earnings during that time period averaged $1.45 per share and the average PE Ratio was 31. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 11.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge. Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 83 insider trades involving 488,145 shares of stock. Of those 83 insider trades, 18 were Buys involving 345,817 shares of stock, and 65 were Sells involving 142,328 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 2.4 to 1.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 197.04 shares of stock with a cost basis of $50.75 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $26.58 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $139.19 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $5,377, a loss of 46%.

Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL) – FYE 12/2018 – FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $26 initiate target, but below my most recent $54 reduce target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 05/22/19